Asset Allocation Backtester, Quant Funds, and Market Timing

Of the 10,002 US Stock Mutual Funds Morningstar tracks, ZERO are up on the year and the average performance is -43.63%.

Of the 2,892 Foreign Stock Mutual Funds, ZERO are up on the year, ZERO are down less than -10%, and the average performance is -50.75%.

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It is about time for the Hedge Fund Masters update, but since AlphaClone is (finally) getting near launch, I am going to stop with the updates and let users play around there. . .and check out Market Folly for more info on tracking the funds through 13Fs:

T2

Lone Pine
Clarium
Pershing Square

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Druckenmiller’s funds have never posted an annual loss.

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Wondering how these declines fit into a historical context? Are you a data junkie and want to backtest virtually any buy and hold asset allocation portfolio for free? AssetPlay can do it:

Backtester here
Data Sources here
Domestic Index Returns
Bond Index Returns

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Morningstar likes LSC,
and so do I.

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Time for a bounce? I think we could see a nice rally here in December and January, and if Fosback has anything to say about it, a good entry would be Monday at the close.

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I don’t like it when people group “hedge funds” together. Ditto for “quant funds”. It is like describing the average dog. While they all have four legs, a tail, and like table scraps – there is a considerable difference between a Great Dane, a Beagle, and a Bulldog. A better description would be “hedge (or quant) funds that do the same thing.”

Asness chimes in on some quantery here.

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Here is a nice post contrasting two market timing systems, but Michael, you gotta include the cash returns!

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Whatever happened to the guys in Hoop Dreams?

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If you get paid $60,000 per speaking appearance, I think you can afford a better home page.

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Let Detroit go bankrupt

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NAAIM $10,000 prize for the best paper in active investing. Full description here:

In the face of $9.8 trillion in equity losses since October 2007, $7.4 trillion of which have hit Main Street portfolios either directly or indirectly , individual investors continued to be deluged with the same old advice. “Even in downturns, it’s best to ride out the market.” Ernie Ankrim, chief investment strategist, Russell Investments.

It’s time academics and the financial media take a second look at that advice. To that extent, we are issuing a request for papers on the viability and use of active management. A $10,000 prize will be awarded by NAAIM to the best paper.

Our query concerns the practice of multiple trading decisions, both buy and sell, throughout a calendar year using trading methodologies such as tactical allocation, exploitable market inefficiencies, hedging techniques, position sizing, dynamic asset allocation, sector rotation and long-short strategies including the effectiveness of trading restrictions and risk management techniques involving mutual funds, individual securities, ETF’s, options or financial futures or derivatives.