CAPE Valuation Bollinger Bands

I was trying to do everything to avoid going to the gym last nite so I put together this chart.  25% cheapest, 25% most expensive, and average of all countries and their CAPE valuations.  2nd chart includes the US.  It's almost like a valuation Bollinger Band that could be used to adjust your domestic vs. global stock weightings. Look at...

Newton’s Revenge

Being a currency buff, I have always found Bitcoin and all of the other "alternative" currencies to be interesting, and a pleasant distraction.  A few months ago the price action seemed to suggest similar properties as many speculative bubbles do, so I penned a piece that compared Bitcoin to the South Seas Bubble.  I even went as far as...

The Most Expensive Stocks are Near Their Most Expensive

Alliance Bernstein has a sneaky good blog.   I think this chart is very telling of where we are now...likely a great time to be running a market neutral fund.      

Stocks Up, Bonds Down

At least, that's what everyone thinks: HT Advisory Perspectives & Sundarden 

Travel and Speeches

While I just got home to my own bed, I'm getting read to hit the road again.  Below is a list of upcoming speeches and travel.  Drop me a line if you want to schedule a meeting (or a beer), the entries in BOLD are where I am giving a public speech) : Denver & Vail CO:  February 25th -...

Does it Even Matter?

I get lots of questions regarding our original paper, most of which I've tried to tackle in the FAQs in the update.  Here is a fun look from the Butler Philbrick crew asking some questions I have never even considered (what about an ANNUAL rebal?) and some more familiar to the readers here (what about daily updates, day of...

My #1 Read of the Year

I sent this read out last week to the Idea Farm list, and since it is a free download as well as my favorite read of the year I'm including it here.  CSFB publishes the Global Investment Returns Yearbook each year, and it is a gem.  It is their yearly update to my favorite investing book, Triumph of the Optimists.Even...

My Investing Mentor

This is one of my favorite pictures of Dad and I, having breakfast on the shores of Lago Atitlan in Guatemala.   I have always loved New Years Resolutions.  That doesn't mean I have always been able to keep them of course, but the idea of optimism, renewal and committing oneself to self improvement has always appealed to me. Previous years...

What Does Siegel’s NIPA P/E Say About the Stock Market?

I had a great time at the ETF.com (formerly IndexU) conference in Florida the other day.  The highlight for me was getting to see Jeremy Siegel speak.  He is a brilliant researcher and well deserves the title of the "Wizard of Wharton".  Especially wonderful was he focused his talk on one of my favorite metrics - the Shiller CAPE...

Market Outlook 2014

(This was going to be a longer piece but I'd touch on the highlights below.) Let’s jump right in – how did broad asset classes perform in 2013? Short answer - a monster year for US stocks, bad for bonds and commodities.  Foreign equity markets and real estate were mixed.  Below is a representative table of 20 basic ETFs across...