Meb Faber Research – Stock Market and Investing Blog

It's been a little slow with Cambria Quantitiative Research Monthly (more like quarterly), but here is the third issue (and the fourth should be close behind).  It happens to be a bit timely with the recent market action.  Hopefully it gives a little color on why volatility is exploding and some ideas on what to do (or not do)...

Gotta hand it to the NYPost...   HT: MC  

However, valuation is not a timing tool, and the odds of a creature as fickle as the stock market obliging our “rational” analysis are in truth fairly low...While valuations are blunt tools on a cyclical time horizon, they have the unusual property of becoming progressively finer and finer instruments as the time horizon is lengthened. The following study examines ten important valuation...

I did a post a few months ago about an ongoing study we are working on that looks at various macro variables and how they affect asset classes.  While we are almost done, a lot of the findings are really cool and we hope to share once we can write them up. We showed that at the time a steep...

Great post from my friends at Bespoke showing that once again, nothing is new in investing...below is their post in its entirety since it is so spot on: "When in doubt blame it on the computers." Nowadays, this seems to be the go to scapegoat for any market related problems.  Over the last few days, numerous reports have said it is the...

One of the areas that I think is underserved in the ETF space is managed futures.  I would have thought by now that the Henry's and Dunn's of the world would have launched a fund, but so far it has been mostly indexes and higher cost mutual funds.  Interesting to see recent news that S&P has licensed another index,...

I was chatting with Professor Tetlock earlier and he passed along this interesting opportunity.  It looks like fun plus you can make up to $600. To join, go to http://www.goodjudgment.info Dear Colleague, We are writing with an unusual but, we hope, intriguing request.  We are in the process of recruiting knowledgeable people to participate in a quite unprecedented study of forecasting sponsored...

With the news that Apple is now the largest company by market cap in the US hitting the wire, analysts should take a look at this older post of ours summarizing Arnott's research. Arnott’s monthly letter is a must read.  In the 6/2010 issue, titled “Too Big To Succeed” he examines how the largest market cap company in each sector performs...

“The Commanding General is well aware the forecasts are no good.  However, he needs them for planning purposes.” - Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Laureate Economist…recalling the response he and colleagues received during the Second World War when they demonstrated that the military’s long-term weather forecasts were useless. (via Future Babble) Virtually every day there are pundits and gurus on the airwaves, internet,...

I wrote a month ago that the endowments and real money funds would face a high hurdle this past year (ending June 30th), and it looks like at least the initial numbers are pretty good. 60/40:  18.33% Ivy allocation from book:  24.27% Bloomberg:  " Endowments and foundations gained an average of 20 percent in the year ended June 30, their best performance in 14 years,...