BP CEO Oil Forecast

Last quotes from Future Babble I promise: “I can forecast confidently that it will vary.  After that, I can gossip with you.  But that’s all it is, because there are too many factors which go in to the dynamics of the pricing of oil.” -Lord John Browne, the legendary former chief executive officer of British Petroleum, worked all his life in...

People Run Out of the Store

Remember when everyone hated bonds six months ago? Long term bonds have rallied about 10% since that post on bond drawdowns: When Things Go On Sale, People Run Out of the Store An updated chart of the long bond ETF TLT below....

Useless Forecasts

Another great quote from Future Babble: “The Commanding General is well aware the forecasts are no good.  However, he needs them for planning purposes.” - Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Laurate Economist, recalling the response he and colleagues received during the Second World War when they demonstrated that the military’s long-term weather forecasts were useless.  

Babble

This is a great passage from the book Future Babble: Be articulate, enthusiastic, and authoritative.  Be likable.  See things through a single analytical lens and craft an explanatory story that is simple, clear, conclusive, and compelling.  Do not doubt yourself.  Do not acknowledge mistakes.  And never, ever say, "I don't know." People unsure about the future want to hear from confident...

Days of Summer

From the looks of these photos everyone seems to be having a much better summer than I am...  

Hiring

As my company grows we are always looking to add new A+ candidates.  If you are a hungry, brilliant person looking to join a young organization trying to shake up Wall Street, fire over a note and a resume (but please be very familiar with who we are and what we do!). While we do have some specific needs, we...

Brain Pickings

I've been doing my best to try and crank out of a few new papers this summer, slow going as usual.  It doesn't help when one comes across a deliciously wonderful blog like Brain Pickings that has reams of time-sucking articles....there is a nice weekly newsletter as well.  Fun links to 5 All Time Favorite TED Talks and Companies...

Real Money Funds Face a High Hurdle This Year

Funds that have a fiscal year ending June 30th are going to face a high return hurdle: 60/40:  18.33% ENDW:  24.27% (Equal weighted 5 asset classes:  US STOCKS, FOREIGN STOCKS, BONDS, REITs, COMMODITIES)

Dividend Resources

What is your favorite book/paper/website/newsletter on dividends? Trying to put some research together and wanted to cover all the bases before we tossed it up here.

Regime Change

One of the most interesting areas of research to me is the analysis of how various macro environments affect asset class returns.  We have been doing a lot of internal modeling (here is an oldish post on the yield curve and real interest rates) with promising results. Here is a nice PDF from Thomson Reuters on the subject:  Monitoring and...