Being Wrong
As I sit in the Charlotte airport en route to Savannah, I am reminded of two things - 1) why doesn't every airport/hotel (esp the $400 hotel) have free wifi? and 2) what a wonderful book Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error by Kathryn Schulz is. It is especially interesting in our field, and as old Maynard...
Gold Ratios and Big Trading Paper Dump
A couple years ago we did a few studies on gold, examining how gold and gold stocks performed:
Gold Miners / Bullion Ratio
"The ratio is around .86 – near the lowest reading ever. Absolute returns for this decile have been strongly positive at 14%, 20%, and 43% for the following 3,6,12 months,...
Active ETFs: Just the Beginning
There was lots of news recently centering around PIMCO's decision to launch an actively traded ETF version of their flagship Total Return Fund. This is notable as the fund is the largest mutual fund in the world weighing in at $235B. That makes the mutual fund about 50x bigger than the entire active ETF space is currently.
While notable, I...
Bubbles vs. Paradigm Shift
This is a really interesting piece from the bubblemaster himself (330 and counting).
Time to Wake Up: Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices are Over Forever
When is a BUBBLE no longer a BUBBLE, but a PARADIGM SHIFT? ie when is THIS TIME REALLY DIFFERENT?
The Biggest Urban Legend in Finance
From Arnott, The Biggest Urban Legend in Finance:
"A 30-year stock market excess return of approximately zero is a huge disappointment to the legions of “stocks at any price” long-term investors.But it’s not the first extended drought. From 1803to 1857, U.S. equities struggled; the stock investor would have received a third of the ending wealth of the bond investor. Stocks...
Trendfollowing in the 1800s
Nice post here that traces the phrase "“Cut short your losses,” – Let your profits run on”:
Traveling
Getting ready for a monster upcoming travel schedule, made even more pleasant due to a recently installed Achilles tendon where my ACL used to be.
As always, drop me a line if you want to meetup!
Chicago, IL Apr 27-29
Jacksonville, FL May 2
San Diego, CA May 3-4
Eastern Seaboard May 9-15 (DC, MD, GA, etc)
NYC May 16-20