Meb Faber Research – Stock Market and Investing Blog

Back in March of 2007 I wrote about how the option selling funds were a blowup waiting to happen. Below is an update of their "performance".The time to invest in these funds is when the VIX is at all times highs (now, 70s) rather than all time lows of around 10 a number of months ago. ...

I think Japan could have a monster year in 2009 - they are back to where they were in 1982, and have experienced three down years in a row - a setup that generates large returns of around 20-30% historically. ---- Nice forum with Julian Robertson and some of the Tiger Cubs at my alma mater. Lots of investment picks after the...

..all correlations go to 1.This year has been marked by truly horrendous returns, not just in equity markets, but in nearly every market and strategy around. Where did that free lunch go?As evidenced by the below table, the only strategies that (relatively) preserved capital were bonds, market neutral funds, managed futures, and obviously the short funds. I...

With October shaping up to be as bad (and probably worse) than September, let's look at what happens after two really bad months in a row. Here I define it by two months that each had worse than -9% performance.Since 1900 in stocks, that has happened 7 times. The resulting three months of performance follows each group. ...

I guess when you return 870% in a year you can write whatever you want. . . ---- Another blogger pulls his content from Seeking Alpha. ---- TIPS yields are pricing in less inflation. ---- A hedge fund that invests in guitars? Seriously? ---- Bogle and Bodie. ---- There is nowhere to hide in 2008... ---- Cancer of the Devil. ---- Going to a ballgame? It looks like a day or...

Looks like we're not the only one that is heavy in cash - Cohen moves most of his fund to money markets for the rest of the year.----Closed-end funds are bouncing off their lows, and by bouncing I mean rocketing up. Check out ETFConnect for a good screener.----Interesting quote from this article on junk bonds, which are trading...

Taking a look at Bespoke's data for the ten best days in stocks since 1900, 4 are during a bear market, and 4 are near (or at) the market bottom. Where are we? (I have no idea). Interesting to note is 8 of the ten came during the 1929-1939 time period, and the only other one right...

Great interview with Grantham from GMO in this weekend's Barrrons. My favorite quote: Barrons: Do you think we will learn anything from all of this turmoil? G: We will learn an enormous amount in a very short time, quite a bit in the medium term and absolutely nothing in the long term. That would be the historical...

Nice new paper out, "Unbundling Hedge Fund Beta" which finds that hedge funds are good at timing the market. This is not surprising to me, as the Hedge Fund Masters tracking portfolios (and initial data out of AlphaClone) tend to follow the market on the downside, then have much higher upside returns. AllAboutAlpha summary here. ---- I don't...

People email me every day asking how the timing model has held up during this market dump (short answer: great). The model is currently 100% in cash/bonds (more on that below). When I do a blog re-design I will include a tab with historical results and updates if enough people are interested (and I also plan on doing an...