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What If You Owned No US Stocks?
...ave compounded at around 10% for just about forever, and the crazy math outcome is that if you compound an investment at 10% for 25 years, you 10x your money, and after 50 years you 100x your money. $10,000 plunked down at age 20 would grow to $1,000,000 in retirement. Amazing! For the past 15 years, it’s been even better than that. US stocks have compounded at around 15% per year since the bottom of the Global Financial Crisis, outperforming almo...
Episode #535: KraneShares’ Brendan Ahern on China’s Economic Landscape: Is It Still Investable?
...s stock market and economy, exploring the impact of the property crisis, upcoming U.S. election and the state of the consumer. Our discussion addresses key questions on whether China remains a viable destination for investors, considering recent regulatory changes, economic policies, and global market dynamics. Sponsor: 10 East is a membership-based investment firm founded by Michael Leffell, former Deputy Executive Managing Member of Davidson Kem...
Episode #534: Michael Melissinos – Mastering the Art of Trend-Following
...something you’re just repeating, I think. So I’m very cognizant of people coming to conclusions and very confident in their words, in the way they talk. So I always ask, “How do you know what you know?” And if it’s, “Well, that’s what he said.” “That’s what I heard.” That’s nothing. That’s not going to pass at NASA. It’s not going to pass when you’re taking serious risk, no one’s going to do this. But one thing that I was talking with Jerry Parke...
Episode #533: Eric Crittenden & Jason Buck Explain Why Best Investors Follow the Trends
...We got, not one, but two podcast alums today. We’re joined by Eric Crittenden, the CIO of Standpoint Asset Management. We also got Jason Buck, also the CIO of Mutiny funds. We’re going to spend a lot of time talking about asset outcasing, diversification, trend following, and much, much more. Welcome back to the show, Eric and Jason. Eric: Thanks for having us. Jason: Always happy to be here. I want everybody to know though, behind the scenes, Me...
Episode #532: Hendrik Bessembinder – Do Stocks Outperform T-Bills?
...hat is just taking the returns that are in the database, which include dividends and compounding them, was not the only way to measure a longer in return, and perhaps even misleading in some cases. So I also started thinking about alternative ways of measuring long-term outcomes, and that’s where I worked out this other measure that’s in the paper that I call shareholder wealth creation. And one of the key differences, well, there’s really two key...
Episode #531: GMO’s Catherine LeGraw – Capitalizing on Global Asset Allocation in 2024
...so REITs, TIPS, and gold are hitting all-time highs. Anything else in the commodity or commodity equities complex? Are those areas an interesting part of a portfolio or particularly tackily right now? Catherine: On those choices, TIPS, definitely yes, we just talked about it. That’s a good place to invest in your portfolio and it’s absolutely a real asset. It’s giving you a real return and it’s well-priced. REITs, I’m less thrilled with as an ass...
Episode #530: Professor Kenneth French on Risk, Return, and Rationality
...you’ll have to pay under the old furnace for the next 20 years. Those two numbers don’t compute unless you make some adjustment for the fact that interest rates are positive. So getting people to understand that would be a huge step. And then if I got one more presentation, I would spend it trying to get people to understand that for most of us, there’s no free lunch in the market. That most of us ought to act as though prices are right. And the a...
When To Take On Bond Risk….
...bonds if they yield similar amounts to T-Bills (or even less!) So what if you only invested in riskier bonds when the spread is wide enough? Sort of a rules-based value or distressed approach to fixed income… (Nerds may call this a tactical time series carry.) Let me know what you think! https://cambriainvestments.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/TBills-and-Chill-Most-of-the-Time.pdf...
Episode #527: Cliff Asness – Timely & Timeless Investment Wisdom
...remely humbling things. No one’s ever accused me of being personally over humble, but when it comes to an investment process, appropriately humble, meaning you realize your edge, if you’re as good as you think you are. Your edge will lead to some really painful times and some really extended painful times. Humble is just accurate there. So yeah, I’m someone who doesn’t acknowledge that and I’m not saying that about the crypto people. I could defen...
Episode #526: Indexing Nevada PERS: Steve Edmundson’s $60 Billion Strategy
...for a lot of years and when rates fell and ultimately bottomed out, those numbers started to come down. So what used to be eight a decade and a half ago is now seven is the median fund. We’re a little bit above that at seven and a quarter, so our long-term actuarial return target is 7.25. Meb: Rewind back. So you join, it was probably what at the time, was it like 10 billion? Do you even remember? Steve: I want to say we were around 15 billion. Me...
