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100th Post, Tally Ho!
...ks (namely, an intellectual oozing with pretense). Taleb has started a new company, Universa, that is the follow on to Empirica. (And I believe it has > $1B in commitments.) Two interesting notes from the talk. 1 – Taleb stated that 97% of his lifetime P&L occurred on one day (you guessed it, 1987). His product seems much less of a ‘hedge fund’ than a insurance type product. 2 – He mentioned how ironic it was that Gauss’s picture used to be on the...
Buying the Highs vs. Buying the Lows
...om 50 stocks ranked by price/52-week high (stocks near 52-week lows). Only companies >$100M market cap were included, and the portfolio rebalances yearly. The site I used is backtest.org, and is great for simple queries using the Value Line database (which if I remember correctly, is about 2000 stocks). I examined the hedge fund best ideas portfolio to query if the funds were buying stocks near their highs or lows. Of the 20 stocks listed, the ave...
Q & A on Commodities
...method. Even at the conservative 5% risk level, optimal allocations to commodities were relatively large, ranging from about 9% up to nearly 14%. Regardless of the method used in projecting future commodity returns, portfolios that included commodities in the opportunity set were also more efficient than those that excluded commodities, based on the Sharpe Ratio....
Badonkadonk and More Books
...le of extreme values). When selecting funds, or designing trading systems, effective risk management depends on differentiating between the different types of volatility, and the acceptable amount of ‘tail risk’. (Mark Shore describes volatility as being like cholesterol, it comes in good and bad variations. Upside volatility is not necessarily bad, but downside volatility is to be avoided). A good example of a strategy with high kurtosis would be...
Digging for Gold in the Stock Market
...on Dollar Boat and a book on the search, “Fatal Treasure” and a DVD on the search, “Treasure! The Search for the Atocha” What does any of this have to do with investing? Explorers from Odyssey Marine Exploration (publicly traded OMR) announced today that they have found what could be the richest shipwreck treasure in history – 17 tons of colonial era silver and gold coins worth an estimated $500M. Article here. Interestingly enough, a number of he...
Hulbert Trendfollowing Article
...almost $500,000 while an investment in the leveraged strategy would be worth almost $2M. . .(and that number is conservative as I used the broker call rate for leverage). Leave a comment if you have any questions, or would like to see any sub-period charts from any of the asset classes mentioned in my paper. . ....
To Infinity and Beyond!
...0-year period to determine whether positive stories are associated with superior future performance and negative stories are associated with inferior future performance for the featured company. “Superior” and “inferior” were determined in comparison with an index or another company in the same industry and of the same size. Statistical testing implied that positive stories generally indicate the end of superior performance and negative news gener...
Unusual Arbs
...that bought this finance textbook), I am guessing the “buyer” had already sold the item at a higher price elsewhere, then proceeded to buy the item and ship directly to his buyer. Essentially, he naked shorted the book, and covered with my book. Does anyone know of, or practice, online book arb? Would like to hear your comments – another interesting arb is the parallel trade of pharmaceuticals in Europe. Any other really unusual arbs out there? PS...
The Volatility Effect & Following Your System
...m “Do you have what it takes to be a successful market timer?“, FundAdvice.com Here are six questions to help you determine if you have what it takes. (Long-time Fund Exchange readers may recognize this topic from an issue we published five years ago.) There are no right or wrong answers, only what’s true for you. Six questions 1. Do you have the necessary perseverance? Timing can get you in real trouble if you try it for awhile, become discourage...
Not So Good News For Exxon
...m, and Munger. He argues that there is no need to reinvent the wheel – and simply apply the same selection model these investors have for decades. I go a step further and argue that an investor can perform equally well by simply following the holdings of these investors. The timing of value investors is not the major value they add. Indeed, Pabrai talks about a few stocks that declined 50%-75% since Buffett initiated a position, before going on to...
