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S&P Licenses More Managed Futures
...y across 37 constituents, falling into the six most widely traded sectors– Commodities, Energy, Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange, Short Term Interest Rates and Equity Indices. Each constituent may be long, short or flat to indicate its trend. The weighting scheme applies an even risk capital allocation across the index by sector and again to each constituent within each sector so that no single sector or constituent drives the volatility of the inde...
The Good Judgment Team
...your participation if you are so inclined (please be advised that the minimum time commitment would be several hours in passing training exercises, grappling with forecasting problems, and updating your forecasting response to new evidence throughout the year). The primary motivation for participating should be Socratic: self-knowledge. But we can also offer a token honorarium of $150 to each participant for completing each year in the forecasting...
Regime Change
...ll actually buy. While this sounds great on paper I imagine it will be very difficult in practice. But like anything, I will reserve judgement until I know more. ) The good material really begins on slide 20: (click to download): One of my favorite writers Charles Kirkpatrick has a book coming out on the subject and I am super excited to get my hands on it: Time the Markets: Using Technical Analysis to Interpret Economic Data....
New White Paper on Pension Funds
...turns. Paradoxically, in an effort to chase the universal 8% rate, pension funds may be laying the groundwork for returns even lower than the risk free rate. In an effort to offer an empirical basis for this possibility, we conclude the paper with a relevant comparison – the return of a hypothetical Japanese pension for the past two decades. We believe that pension funds need to at least prepare for the unfathomable: 0% returns for 20 years. Most...
Hulbert: Making the Trend Your Friend (Enemy?)
...centage points – many people miss this…however for a more apples-to-apples comparison one can use momentum or relative strength to outperform by 3-4 percentage points with similar vol.) He goes on to test the system over the past two decades and comments that the system didn’t work on an absolute basis (again no mention of vol or drawdown). Oddly he ignores cash returns – Tbills yielded 3.7% over this period which is not nothing. He also ignores t...
An Econometric Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation
...te is above 2%, the price of gold falls. Gold holds steady at the equilibrium rate of 2%. It’s my contention that this was what the Gibson Paradox was all about since the price of gold was tied to the general price level. Now here’s the kicker: there’s a lot of volatility in this relationship. According to my backtest, for every one percentage point real rates differ from 2%, gold moves by eight times that amount per year. So if the real rates are...
Enough Toilet Reads for a Year
...My friend likes to call online and magazine articles “toilet reading” (well that is the SFW description), and he passed along enough reads for all of 2011. Just as I was coming up for air from all the books I’ve finished, thank you very little friend (HT: AF) The Atlantic 100 Great Pieces of Journalism...
DC & NYC
...to higher inflation, higher yield currencies. In times of risk aversion, CAPITAL COMES HOME. It does not, according to Persaud go to the “safest” currencies, but it comes home. “ http://www.valuerestorationproject.com/2011/05/currencies-are-not-like-stocks-winners.html...
How to Pick Mutual Funds: The Netflix Prize for Improving Morningstar’s Star Rankings
...ated: “The star rating is a grade on past performance. It’s an achievement test, not an aptitude test…We never claim that they predict the future.” Morningstar, quite impressively, actually disclosed a few months ago that simply using expense ratios was a better metric for predicting future performance that their star ratings. “Investors should make expense ratios a primary test in fund selection,” Russel Kinnel, director of mutual fund research a...
Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2011 (GIRY)
...Nice free download of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2011 (GIRY). (Automatically download PDF here.) This is a MUST READ. A few charts below:...
