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Winning By Not Losing

...e of last year. And of course you would still be happily in 20% bonds, 20% commodities, and 60% cash. I have received a handful of emails asking to post the monthly return series online, and below is a PDF you will have to click on to enlarge and view. As you can see, the returns in 2006 (when I first circulated the paper) to 2008 out-of-sample are quite representative of the previous 30+ years. 36 profitable years and counting – including this ye...

Assets and Defending Them

...en.) Long time readers know that I am a fan of using payout yield over dividend yield, and this paper is even more encompassing. It basically says a decrease in total assets is good – things like dividends, buybacks, spinoffs, and paying down debt. Ominous signs for future stock performance – accquistions, share issuances, borrowing, and sitting on lots of cash. Abstract: We test for firm-level asset investment effects in returns by examining the...

Super Bowl Reads

...gle (SGOVX) – and both had a negative ’07 after 13 positive years. Leave a comment if you know the current streak leader. . . Here is the original Kiplinger’s article. —- Moneyball for hoops (nod to reader CC). —- If any of the aggregators were smarter they would adopt the business model of ValueInvestingNews. —- Here is the solution to the Japanese IQ Test if you couldn’t figure it out. . . —- Why am I never around when everyone takes their pants...

Sample Listed Hedge Fund Performance

...Investing Rules. —- Got 10 (or 30) minutes to spare? Take the Japanese IQ Test. “Everybody has to cross the river” Click the blue circle to start. The following rules apply: * Only 2 persons on the raft at a time. * The father cannot stay with any of the daughters, without their mother’s presence. * The mother cannot stay with any of the sons, without their father’s presence. * The thief (striped shirt) cannot stay with any family member, if the...

Quantery

...The Minsky Meltdown by Grantham – you can download the entire paper on GMO. JG – “I’m afraid cash is the ugly answer that no one ever wants to hear.” That sits soundly with the GTAA model current allocation – mostly in cash/bonds. —- The Great Deal Spread of 2008, and a cool new site – ArbitrageView —- From the dictator that rules my fantasy league comes this gem – I can also sympathize being a Broncos fan – warning, explicit dialogue!...

AlphaNews January 10th

...for fundamental strategies. – In international markets the quant managers also achieved a higher average return in the last 5 years and a higher information ratio of 0.32 compared to -0.66 of fundamental strategies. ============= For subscription, please contact alphanews@alphaletters.com...

Guest Blog: Tom McClellan

...inflation rate is exactly what gold prices said should be happening. The latest CPI number showed a big jump (finally!) to above a 4% annual growth rate. If gold is right, then we still have a lot more to go in terms of a rising CPI growth rate. That is going to make it tough on the Fed in its effort to solve the mortgage mess by throwing money at it. That extra money will just go into pushing gold prices higher, keeping inflation climbing, etc. B...

AlphaLetters Quant Paper Reviews

...er, Maurice D. Levi Source: Maryland University working paper Link: http://www.rhsmith.umd.edu/finance/pdfs_docs/seminarspring07/Kramer.pdf Summary: This article documents an opposing annual seasonality in US Treasury (5, 7, 10, and 20-year US government bond) and equity monthly returns: · Treasury monthly returns usually peak in October, and bottom in April · The difference between treasury peak and trough is over 80+ basis points · An opposing s...

Forbes.com Moves Into the Blog Aggregator Space

...interesting conversations that have occurred and will occur in the Forbes.com community Networking Events: we will host a spring and fall conference at the Forbes Gallery for members of our the blog network– presenting new trends, tools and other aspects of technology which effect the blogging community in general Increased revenues: the Forbes.com Blog Network will have its own dedicated ad sales force that will leverage our deep relationships w...

Fees & Tax Harvesting

...in the Dec 2007 Wealth Manager magazine titled “Financial Crusaders” that is a good read (no online version yet). An investor could do a lot worse than Rick Ferri (profiled in the article and author of All About Asset Allocation ). He charges a tiny maximum .25% fee per annum that declines to .10% for $10 million+ accounts. Granted, he doesn’t offer any financial planning, but he argues that it should be charged separately anyway. He places clien...