Are the top value hedge funds going to beat the market every quarter, or just outperform when the market is going up?
Maybe we should ask Will Ferrell, errr, I mean Robert Goulet:
“You win, you always do – that’s why I come up here.” (Video at the end – thanks to reader SB.)
All data is from the close on Wednesday. (For a much more in depth look into the 13Fs check out these posts over on the Market Folly blog.)
It is time to update the two hedge fund 13F portfolios we track on World Beta. If are are unfamiliar with the approach it is spelled out numerous times on my blog – you can just search “13F” and a bunch of posts will pop up.
I am not sure if I am going to continue to track these after the launch (hopefully next month) of AlphaClone. This blog is mostly about investment theory and applications rather than making investment advice and picks, so unless there is a lot of interest I may discontinue the updates. The strategies have outperformed the indexes by around 15% over the past year and a half, and there is some validity behind the approach. The two strategies we have tracked seem to follow the market on the downside but have much higher upside volatility. Those numbers are in line with my historical backtests of 6-12% outperformance per year. If you have a strong opinion either way, let me know. On to the filings!
Hedge Fund Consensus – Top holdings owned by 15 value hedge funds, ranked by # of funds with the same position. Qualcomm (QCOM) was the standout performer at around 18%, and American Express (AXP) was the worst performer at -23%. Everyone still loves Qualcomm, but everyone really loves American Express (AXP) now. Is it a falling knife or just a really cheap stock? Currently AXP is down about -40% from its high.
| AAPL (3) |
| BRK(3) |
| MA(3) |
| QCOM(3) |
| TGT(3) |
| V(3) |
WLP (4)
| AMX (5) |
| GOOG (5) |
| MSFT (5) |
AXP (6)
The list of double repeats is at the end of the post.
Hedge Fund Best Ideas – Top two holdings from each of 10 value hedge funds listed below. Qualcomm was the standout performer here as well, and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) and News Corp (NWS) were the worst at around -31%.
| AAPL |
| AMT |
| AMX |
| AXP |
| CDNS |
| CA |
| CY |
| GOOG |
| HLX |
| HPQ |
| KO |
| MA |
| MSFT |
| NWS |
| RIMM |
| SD |
| TGT |
| WFC |
| WLP |
| WYE |
—-
Baupost Group
Klarman still holds his top positions in News Corp (NWS), Wellpoint (WLP), and Exterran (EXH). New positions include PDL Biopharma (PDLI) and United Health Group (UNH).
Top 10 holdings are:
| WLP |
| NWS |
| EXH |
| PDLI |
| UNH |
| UFS |
| LINE |
| LMDIA |
| THRX |
| HRZ |
—-
Blue Ridge Capital
Griffin runs a pretty diversified portfolio, and he was added to top names Google (GOOG) and Wyeth (WYE). New positions include Anadarko (APC) and Visa (V).
Top 10 holdings are:
| GOOG |
| WYE |
| AXP |
| AAPL |
| CVA |
| MIL |
| TV |
| SCHW |
| APC |
| DISCA |
—-
Warren Buffett
Not much going on here. Bought some NRG Energy (NRG). The Conoco (COP) stake was exempted from filings (thanks reader MC).
Top 10 holdings are:
| KO |
| WFC |
| PG |
| BNI |
| AXP |
| JNJ |
| KFT |
| WSC |
| USB |
| MCO |
—-
Eminence Capital
New position in Google and Abbott (ABT), sold out of Yahoo (YHOO) and UPS (UPS). Added to top positions American Express (AXP) and Cypress Semi (CY).
Top 10 holdings are:
| AXP |
| CY |
| ORCL |
| PHG |
| FISV |
| DGX |
| MSFT |
| SAI |
| UTX |
| IGT |
—-
Greenlight Capital
50% of Einhorn’s portfolio is in his top five holdings. New positions in Teradata (TDC) and Republic Airways (RJET).
Top 10 holdings are:
| TGT |
| HLX |
| MSFT |
| AMP |
| MDC |
| HMA |
| BAGL |
| MIM |
| URS |
| PCX |
—-
Lone Pine Capital
Bought new positions in Entergy (ETR) and Weatherford (WFT).
Top 10 holdings are:
| SD |
| AMX |
| XTO |
| GOOG |
| QCOM |
| ETR |
| FAST |
| WFT |
| MON |
| MSM |
—-
Maverick Capital
Ainslie added new positions in First Solar (FSLR) and CVS Caremark (CVS). Sold Qualcomm and Amazon.
Top 10 holdings are:
| AAPL |
| RIM |
| AMX |
| BK |
| MRVL |
| FSLR |
| BAX |
| AMD |
| JWN |
| RTN |
—-
Okumus Capital
Lots of turnover here. 60% of the portfolio is in the top three positions Microsoft (MSFT), Cadence Design (CDNS), and Office Depot (ODP). MSFT is a new position and accounts for a third of the portfolio.
Top 10 holdings are:
| MSFT |
| CDNS |
| ODP |
| M |
| AN |
| MHP |
| ORLY |
| DST |
| EXPE |
| CTA |
—-
Private Capital
Bought a little Sothebys (BID), sold out of BEA Systems (BEAS).
Top 10 holdings are:
| CA |
| HPQ |
| SYMC |
| MGM |
| S |
| RCL |
| RJF |
| JW |
| IGT |
| NTRS |
—-
Tiger Global
Mentor (MNT) and Trustmark (TRMK) are new positions, and sold out of Luxottica and Focus Media (FMCN).
Top 10 holdings are:
| MA |
| AMT |
| CSX |
| GOOG |
| AMX |
| QCOM |
| BIDU |
| SBAC |
| TDG |
| MELI |
—-
List of double repeats:
| AMT |
| APC |
| BID |
| BNI |
| CA |
| CDNS |
| CSCO |
| COV |
| CY |
| DST |
| ETN |
| IGT |
| HPQ |
| HMA |
| HLX |
| KO |
| MDC |
| MSTR |
| MRVL |
| NWS |
| ODP |
| ORCL |
| PCLN |
| RIMM |
| SAI |
| SD |
| TDC |
| UNH |
| WFC |
| WMB |
| WMT |
via videosift.com
