Episode #174: Amlan Roy, “Monetary Policy is Very Ineffective In A World Where We Are Getting Very Old”
Guest: Dr Amlan Roy is Head of Global Macro Policy Research and Senior MD at State Street Global Advisors Asset Management Division (SSGA). He leads a Research team focused on Macroeconomics, Policy & Politics, Retirement & Demographics serving external and internal clients of State Street Group across 30+ countries. Prior to his current role, he was Global Chief Retirement Strategist and Senior MD since April 2017. He is a seasoned global public speaker and an experienced Global Macro Researcher specializing in Macroeconomics & Policy, Portfolio Theory, Demographics & Retirement. He researches issues related to Growth, Monetary Policy, Asset Allocation, EM, Gender Disparity and, Systemic risks. He is a Senior Research Associate at London School of Economics and Guest Finance Professor at London Business School.
Date Recorded: 7/12/19
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Summary: In episode 174, we welcome our guest, Amlan Roy. Amlan and Meb start the conversation off with a discussion on demographics, why we need to understand them, and the idea that monetary policy is relatively ineffective in the demographic environment the world faces today.
Amlan then lays out some prescriptions for some of the issues he’s seeing today, including, the idea of doing away with traditional retirement ages, more fairness toward women, and updated immigration policies.
Meb and Amlan then get into negative yielding interest rates, the impacts they have on investors, and how we should be thinking about economic and finance theory. He also hits on falling productivity growth, and a trying to solve that issue in China, India, and the rest of the world by bringing more young people and women into the workforce.
Amlan then shifts to some additional thoughts on growth, and his idea of the “Demographic Dividend.”
Don’t miss all of this and more in episode 174, including some of Amlan’s most memorable and important market calls.
Links from the Episode:
- 0:59 – Welcome to our guest, Amlan Roy
- 2:37 – Amlan’s view of demographics
- 8:10 – The dramatic impact of aging populations
- 8:15 – The Meb Faber Show – Episode #150: Bill Smead, “The United States Economy Is Highly Likely To Be The Strongest The Next 10 Years It’s Been Since The Baby Boomers Went Through The 30 to 45-Year-Old Age Range”
- 13:47 – The Coming Generational Storm: What You Need to Know about America’s Economic Future
- 17:02 – The problems of living beyond our means and wealth gaps
- 18:03 – The Subprime Solution: How Today’s Global Financial Crisis Happened, and What to Do about It (Shiller)
- 19:56 – Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy (Rodrick)
- 20:04 – Globalization and Its Discontents (Stiglitz)
- 20:59 – Solutions for stresses in the economic system
- 21:41 – What if 8% is Really 0%? Pension Funds Investing with Fingers-Crossed and Eyes Closed (Faber)
- 22:59 – The Demographic Manifesto: New People, New Jobs
- 29:19 – The economics of negative yielding sovereign bonds
- 35:47 – Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns (Dimson, Marsh, Staunton)
- 37:27 – The 2019 Global Investment Returns Yearbook: 119 years of financial history and analysis
- 38:45 – Stocks for the Long Run 5/E: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies (Siegel)
- 38:55 – Stock investors expectations for returns
- 45:46 – The potential for investment in Africa
- 50:11 – Why health is the most important asset that all of us have
- 51:44 – Favorite resources
- 53:44 – Most memorable investment
- 56:09 – Following Amlan – LinkedIn, State Street Global Advisors
Transcript of Episode 174: