Meb Faber Research – Stock Market and Investing Blog

The allure of a higher frequency system is compelling, but will higher transaction costs eat into results?It is always nice to see another analyst validate your research. Formula Research took a crack at the timing model , and after adding a few tweaks(substituting corporate bonds for Treasuries for one) found the results to be consistent(returns and risk were higher...

That's not your mother, it's a man, baby! - Austin PowersAfter the Journal of Wealth Management decided to change my name to Melanie, another group deemed it necessary to turn me into a woman. I am speaking at the Asset Allocation Summit in London this Summer, and IRC decided to Ms. me on their speaker list. (Sheesh, it's like...

Users get a bit creative with their ETF ideas. . . A few days ago I penned a column on ETFs that I would like to see hit the marketplace. My list is below, followed by all of the reader suggestions. One of the more unique user suggestions was disease categories (Diabetes, Heart Disease): My original list 1. Foreign...

Investors can't seem to get their fill from the private equity fountain. . .The magazine cover indicator(see below for description) would be screaming to get out of private equity right now, with Blackstone going public, and firms rushing out private equity funds.That having been said, the news that Barclays Global is launching a private equity fund is good news...

Will any of the new ETFs catch your eye?With the dozens and dozens of new products hitting the market seemingly daily, there are a number of "holes" that I would like to see launched as ETFs. The recent launch of the Rydex managed futures mutual fund is a good example of an alternative strategy that I have been waiting...

Can adding some complexity squeeze out some more performance? In my paper, I examined how a simple timing method on 5 asset classes could improve the returns vs. a passive buy and hold allocation. I want to explore an additional area of research - timing the components of each asset class. The 5 asset classes used in my study were the...

I track the performance of roughly 60 country equity indices. Granted, most of the sample size is recent (there is only about 20 series in 1970, and 40 in 1990). Below is a chart of % of countries with a positive return in any year, and the blue line is number of series included. I don't know how much...

Morningstar uses a similar technique as our Best Ideas FOF, but with value mutual funds. They use elements of conviction, consensus, and then overlay it with the Morningstar ratings and price/fair value estimates. Current names include:Tyco (TYC) Wal-Mart (WMT) Dell (DELL)Berkshire (BRK.B)Time Warner (TWX)Expedia (EXPE)IAC (IACI) Anheuser-Busch (BUD) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Sprint Nextel (S) Pulte...

An article in the New York Times, "Don't Always Follow the Crowds", gives some advice on how to pick your bracket. Lots of positive implications in the professor's research for my alma mater, a #4 seed. . .And an interesting study in predictive markets is PicksPal. Predictive markets fascinate me, but I always assumed that since the users had...

In a previous post, we examined how a simple passive asset allocation and a more active strategy could perform in-line with the hedge fund indices. In their Daily Observations from January, Bridgewater examines the AUM at hedge funds and their leverage ratios (which have increased by 70% in the past few years). Great read.And, another Faber talks about "A...