Paul Tudor Jones on the 200-Day Moving Average

I mentioned the new Tony Robbins book out “Money: Master the Game” in our prior post “The All Seasons Portfolio“.  I think it is a good book, especially for the newbie wondering what to do with their money.  It is really long, but market pros could probably skip to the last 25% of the book for the interviews, and honestly the Paul Tudor Jones one made the entire book worthwhile.  I would buy it for that alone.  As you know I’ve always been a trend guy, and Paul talks quite a bit about trends below.  (Likely I will update our 2006 trendfollowing paper again in January.)

While I would like to post the entire interview here, a few highlights are below (TR=Tony Robbins, PTJ= Paul Tudor Jones)

PTJ: So the turtle wins the race, right?  I think the single most important things that you can do is diversify your portfolio.  Diversification is key, playing defense is key, and, again, just staying in the game for as long as you can.

TR:  Following up on diversification, how do you think about asset allocation in terms of playing defense?

PTJ: There’s never going to be a time where you can say with certainty that this is the mix I should have for the next five or ten years.  The world changes so fast.  If you go and look right now, the valuations of both stocks and bonds in the US are both ridiculously overvalued.  And cash is worthless, so what do you do with your money?  Well, there’s a time when to hold em and a time when to fold em.  You’re not going to necessarily always be in situation to make a lot of money, where the opportunities are great.

……

TR: Okay, any specific strategies for protecting your portfolio?

PTJ: I teach an undergrad class at the University of Virginia, and I tell my students, “I’m going to save you from going to business school.  Here, you’re getting a $100k class, and I’m going to give it to you in two thoughts, okay?  You don’t need to go to business school; you’ve only got to remember two things.  The first is, you always want to be with whatever the predomianat trend is.

…..

TR:  So my next question is, how do you determine the trend?

PFJ:  My metric for everything I look at is the 200-day moving average of closing prices.  I’ve seen too many things go to zero, stocks and commodities.  The whole trick in investing is: “How do I keep from losing everything?”  If you use the 200-day moving average rule, then you get out.  You play defense, and you get out.

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TR:  That is considered one of the top three trades of all time, in all history (1987 Crash)!  Did your theory about the 200-day moving average alert you to that one?

PTJ:  You got it.  It had done under the 200-day moving target.  At the very top of the crash, I was flat.

…..

TR:  What’s the second thought for students?

PTJ:  5:1 (risk /reward).  Five to one means I’m risking one dollar to make five.  What five to one does is allow you to have a hit ratio of 20%.  I can actually be a complete imbecile. I can be wrong 80% of the time, and I’m still not going to lose.

…..

TR:  Since asset allocation is so important, let me ask you:  If you couldn’t pass on any of your money to your kids but only a specific portfolio and a set of principles to guide them, what would it be?

PTJ:  I get very nervous about the retail investor, the average investor, because it’s really, really hard.  If this was easy, if there was one formula, one way to do it, we’d all be zillionaires.  One principle for sure would get out of anything that falls below the 200-day moving average.

There you have it folks – trendfollowing advice from one of the greatest traders of all time…

Lots more great stuff in the interview on giving back, charity, kindness, etc….Money: Master the Game is worth a read!

In a follow on post we will examine the two allocations in the book, David Swensen vs. Ray Dalio….

 

 

 

Fees of the Top Advisors

I was updating an old table I used to post on the blog called “A Survey of the Money Manager Space”.  It examined a lot of the online and offline offerings from various providers – RIAs, roboadvisors, custodians, etc.

My prior quote from 2012:

Investors shouldn’t pay much for buy and hold portfolios.  Honestly they shouldn’t pay anything on top of the 0.30% in fees one would pay for a portfolio of indexed ETFs or mutual funds (we detailed a few of these in our book The Ivy Portfolio).  Now, if you have a killer advisor that is doing tax harvesting and/or adding alpha that is different but not the topic of this post.  (Although if I was one of these software sites I would perfect the tax harvesting algorithm that would be huge differentiator.)

Anything more than 0.5% or so on top of fund fees is either paid a) out of ignorance, which is not always the investor’s fault or b) as a tax for being irresponsible.  For the latter I mean a fee to keep you out of your own way of chasing returns and doing something stupid, much in the same way someone pays Weight Watchers or any other diet advice program when you know what you should be doing (eat less, exercise more).  Some broad generalizations here but trying to get to the data below.  That fee is worth a lot if you cannot keep out of the way of your own emotions, and the evidence is massive in favor of that being the case.  We have a great research piece coming up on the topic here soon.

I made the dividing line 0.5% for a $100,000 account.  Anything more is labeled in red (ie charge as much as you can get away with model), anything below in green (charge as little as possible model).  I can’t understand why the custodians charge anything at all considering they likely just load the accounts with their own funds (double dipping on fees).  I actually applaud some of the lower fee entrants and their fees (Betterment, Wealthfront), though I will say I think this is a very difficult model to differentiate yourself compared to simply buying a few ETFs and rebalancing that once a year.

Not too much has changed in the two years since I wrote this post.  More and more roboadvisors have entered the space, raised a TON of VC money while raising AUM as well.  Huge congrats to the companies raising the money, though I think the VCs have lost their mind at these valuations. I think it is a great trend and will include Schwab in the table once they launch.  For the most part we are are on the same side of the ball as the roboadvisors versus the old school high fee offerings (though some roboadvisors are not low fee).

I decided to update the table with some famous RIAs, and I was actually shocked how much most of them charged.  You can find all of this information for free on the SEC website – click on “Brochure” on the left side of the screen to get an easy reading summary of fees, etc.  Some of the most famous RIAs like Ken Fisher, Ron Carson, and Rick Edelman, charge fees much higher than I would have expected.  Some offer additional services such as estate planning, trusts, etc.

Anyways, email in with any suggestions and I’ll add to the table…(Note: I excluded Fidelity’s Portfolio Advisory Service as I couldn’t get a straight answer out of them on fees – it ranges from 0.63% to 1.7%.)  Any mistakes are my own and I will update with corrections if you see any…

CLICK ON THE CHART TO EXPAND

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Time Machine: 2010

I’ve been digging through the archives and came across this old post with a fun piece from Paul Tudor Jones, who wrote the foreword to the new edition of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator …:

The interview  is priceless.

Must read.

“There are two rules from this book by which I now live during these later stages of my constitution.  First is the tenet “The trend is your friend,” which is repeated often – but not often enough.  You sill simply never make any money unless you begin and end every trading thought with that in mind.  Second is the old adage actually popularized in the 1880s, as I learned in your annotations: “Sell down to the sleeping point”.

Probably the best lessons to be learned from this book come from his (Lefevre’s) repeated failures and how he dealt with them.  In the book I think he lost his entire fortune four or five times.   I did the same thing but was fortunate enough to do it all in my early twenties on very small stakes of capital….I think it’s no great coincidence that our greatest champions, our greatest artists, our greatest leaders, our greatest everything all seem to have experienced some kind of gut wrenching loss.”

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I added a simple one time email login to the blog.  It should work such that you only have to type your email in once – obviously I will never rent or sell your email.

The All Seasons Portfolio (aka The Tony Robbins Portfolio)

Like I wrote about the other day, I’ve really taken to podcasts.  One of the recent podcasts I listened to was an interview between Tony Robbins and Tim Ferriss.  I’m not that familiar with Robbins (I keep calling him Larry Robbins, the founder of the Glenview hedge fund).  He is publishing a new book out next month called Master the Money Game, his first in 20 years, and first on finance.  There are lots of names included in the book our readers will be familiar with (Dalio, Swensen, Bogle, etc).  Anyways, Robbins seems like a truly decent human being, and I enjoyed the interview and pre-ordered the whopping 700 page book. 

Anyways, what interested me was he chatted a lot about risk parity and Dalio.  I’ve written a lot about risk parity on the blog in past years (a long linkfest here), and my very first post ever in 2006 was on the topic.  Robbins refers to Dalios All Weather portfolio, which Bridgewater explains at length on their website – “The All-Weather-Story“.  Robbins seems to be getting into the roboadvisor game with a partnership with Stronghold Financial.  Their strategy is called the “All Seasons” portfolio which is definitely a hat tip to Bridgewater. The fee of 0.75% is in the middle vs the other robo-advisors (Betterment, Vanguard, Wealthfront, Liftoff, Personal Capital, etc…and Schwab rumored to be launching soon). Like most robo sites it is well designed, takes clients through a questionnaire, and makes suggested portfolio recs using ETFs.

Here is the breakdown of the All Seasons allocation: Long Gov Bond 40.00% Intermediate Gov Bond 15.00% Diversified Commodity 7.50% Gold 7.50% US Large Cap 12.50% US Mid Cap 5.50% US Small Cap 3.00% International Stock 6.00% Emerging Market Stock 3.00% Total 100.00%

all seasons
 
Here is my old risk parity portfolio from 2013.  As you can see they are a little different – Robbins has more in equities, though most in the US (which you know I don’t like for the home country bias…).  (I wonder if the shift in bonds was due to Bridgewater altering the strategy in 2013?)
 
Below is performance from 1973-2013 for the All Seasons portfolio..like most risk parity portfolios that are heavy in bonds, it tends to do worse in a rising rates environment like the 1970s.  

cagrcagr2  yearlyreal curve .

 

A quote from my old article last year on the topic of asset allocations models…will update the returns at year end as most of these are only through 2012…

“As you can see, they all performed pretty similarly. People spend countless hours refining their beta allocation, but for buy and hold, these allocations were all within 200 basis points of each other!

A rule of thumb we talked about in our book is that over the long term, Sharpe Ratios cluster around 0.2 for asset classes, and 0.4 – 0.6 for asset allocations. You need to be tactical or active to get above that.

What’s the takeaway? Go enjoy your summer.”

 

returns by year

 

 

Look Who Decided to Show Up to the Party…

I mentioned on Twitter the other day that trendfollowing is my desert island strategy.  Trendfollowing had a great Sep, and is having a great 2014 so far.  (But a tepid to terrible last 5 years depending on the system and markets.)

We’ve done testing going back 100 years or so (so has AQR in their paper ) and I was delighted to see a new book out by the crew at ISAM (up a whopping 28% this year) that has a 800 year backtest!  Looking forward to reading it.

If you want some background reading on Trendfollowing search the archives, lots and lots in there including some of the below:

Podcast interviews that are excellent

QTAA Paper

Bhansali paper on Trendfollowing through the Rate Cycle

On the Nature and Origins of Trendfollowing – Stig Ostgaard

Dual Momentum Investing – Antonacci

Following the Trend – Clenow

Trendfollowing Bible – Abraham

Global Investment Returns Yearbook – Dimson, Marsh, Staunton

Appendix in Smarter Investing in Any Economy – Michael Carr

Trendfollowing – Michael Covel

The Capitalism Distribution – LondBoardFunds

Annotated Bibliography of Selected Momentum Research Papers – AQR Website

 

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Single Best New Site For Investors

I am super happy to announce that Research Affiliates has build out a pretty killer new capital market forecast site, complete with CAPE updates! Enjoy!

http://www.researchaffiliates.com/AssetAllocation/Pages/Core-Overview.aspx

 

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Omaha, Process, & Skin in the Game

Every time Peyton Manning steps up to the line of scrimmage he is prepared to audible.  He has spent thousands of hours of film study to get ready for nearly every situation.  So when he shouts “Omaha”, he isn’t panicking or reacting emotionally, he is simply instituting a reaction to calculated probabilities from many years of experience and study.  

The same should be true for your portfolio.  Do you have a plan?  Or do you simply have a portfolio for today, that you will emotionally react to if and when current events dictate?

You should be prepared for the possibility of a 80% decline or 100% rise in stocks.  What would you do with bonds yields climbing to 10% again in the US, or declining to and staying at at 1% for 10 years?  Gold at 400, gold at 4000? Oil at 50, oil at 200? Did the volatility and losses of September and October scare you?  Did they cause you to alter your plan?  Do you even have a plan?

Much like the great book Checklist Manifesto, you should have a written investment plan – what real money institutions call a “policy portfolio”.  I wrote a whole book on the topic (The Ivy Portfolio).  If you promise to write a review I’ll even send you a copy.  The simplest policy portfolio is just the global market portfolio which can be had for about 0.2% through ETFs.  But it doesn’t matter what your policy portfolio is, just that you have one and you can fathom the possible outcomes.  It could be 100% in CDs, or the Talmud, or anything else.  Some like trendfollowing, others, a farm and guns.

 I’ve been in Asia for a few weeks and in general would love to add more to my foreign stock allocation on any weakness or declines.  I have limit buy orders in every 10% down in foreign stocks for the next 50%.  Likely? No.  Possible?  Sure.  But if and when stocks go down 20,40, 60%, I don’t want to be at the line of scrimmage wondering if I will pull the trigger or not.  I have a plan, and my portfolio has a roadmap for any possible outcome.  While I am a trendfollower at heart, I have a (very) long time horizon, and can be aggressive.  Younger investors should relish market declines (hard but true).

In June I sat down to chat with Samuel Lee at Morningstar.  I think it is instructive to illustrate the way I think about process of my portfolio, as many investors don’t think about possible outcomes until they happen.  You can see my broad allocation to public investments below, and I will update again at year end. 

 

Lee: In a recent blog post, you disclosed the rough breakdown of your personal portfolio. Would you mind disclosing exact proportions for your liquid assets, and why you’ve made those bets?

Faber: I think it is hugely important to have a money manager with skin in the game. In addition, many commentators and portfolio managers are willing to provide you with plenty of advice, but just try getting them to disclose how they invest their own money–impossible! If you don’t believe me, or want to see how much your portfolio manager is invested in his own funds, the filings are public, so you can view them at any time. Next time you are chatting with your advisor or broker, or hear someone giving lots of advice at a conference, ask them one simple question: “Specifically, what do you do with your money?”

My net worth is dominated by my ownership in Cambria Investment Management. Next in line would be farmland and real estate owned with my two brothers. I also hold equity stakes in a few other private companies (including The Idea Farm and AlphaClone). On the liquid side, I have 100% invested in our funds. All of my cash flows simply funnel into these four investments on a periodic basis. My horizon is very long-term and I have a high risk tolerance.

The breakdown is currently:

60% Global Tactical Hedge Fund (private)

20% Global Value ETF (GVAL)

10% Shareholder Yield ETF (SYLD)

10% Foreign Shareholder Yield ETF (FYLD)

The percent allocation in the three ETFs is actually higher than stated above, as the Global Tactical private fund is composed of ETFs. I will be adding to this list as we launch new funds in the coming months. Specifically, my assets in the hedge fund will transfer to the Global Momentum ETF when it launches.

As you can see, my holdings are dominated by foreign stocks, portfolios that can and do have the ability to tactically move to cash (and have a high exposure to real assets), and stocks that are shareholder-friendly and returning lots of cash to investors. I am least exposed to traditional bonds, but for me they are not that attractive at these levels for my time horizon and goals. If stocks experienced a large drawdown of 30% to 90%, I would shift more and more of the allocation to the equity portion. As I’ve mentioned in our new book, I don’t think U.S. stocks are that attractive currently, but I am very positive on foreign stocks.

 

A New Medium

I have spent more and more time listening to podcasts. They are the perfect medium for chats on investing – really the exact opposite of the 30 second soundbite on TV.  I currently only listen to a few – Ritholtz, Ferris, Altucher, Stansberry, and Covel.  Covel has nearly 300(!) with some of the worlds best traders, money managers, professors, and “other”.  I’m not just saying that because I have been a guest – take a look at a few of the great interviews below and podcast #.  

If you have a particular favorite podcasts I’m missing, shoot me an email!  All can be found on iTunes with the exception of Ritholtz which is Bloomberg Business Radio (but joining iTunes soon is the word).

Kathryn Kaminski (new book with Greyserman ordered) 282
Larry Williams 168
Marty Bergin (CEO Dunn) 222
Robert Aumann (Nobel prize game theory) 269
Vineer Bhansali 281
Mark Broadie 279 (Columbia fin prof; golf science)
Leo Melamed 265
William Poundstone (Author Fortunes Formula) 254
Perry Kaufman 253
Brett Steenbarger 239
Daniel Kahneman 212
John Bollinger 211

Notes from Bhutan

I’ve been spending a few days in Bhutan with my Mom (photo below), and it’s been a truly special trip.  I’ve had a little time to think, reflect, and in addition to committing to writing some more, there will be a few monster announcements coming in a few months, so stay tuned!  A few quick hits below: 

One of the many books I’ve plowed through on the long travel times was Thiel’s Zero to One.  One of my favorite passages revealed that if he could ask a startup just one question before investing, what one question he would ask?

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Most asset classes got creamed in September.  Guess one of the only ones that didn’t? Trendfollowers.

Speaking of trendfollowing – that is a system that would have saved your hide in the 70%+ bitcoin drawdown going on currently…

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I don’t think many investors realize this, but there are some ETFs that pay you to own them.  Think about that.

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70 biotech IPOs this year. Previous peak was 64 in 2000.

Source: CSFB

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Investing in the true global market portfolio means at various times you’d have ~35% vs 65% in stocks.  And you don’t rebalance.  Ever.I forget what reminded me of this, but I have this quote hanging in my bathroom in CA:

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A good article from an ETF vet.

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If you’re looking for a good listen to drink a glass of wine too, try Mandolin Orange – a NC bluegrass band.  I’m having a Druk 1000 as we speak…

This sign is hanging in my bathroom at home, not sure what reminded me of it…

“We have a strategic plan. It’s called doing things.” – Herb Kelleher

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