People seem to have a lot of misgivings when it comes to CAPE. I have no idea why as almost all valuation indicators usually line up on the same side when a stock or market is over/undervalued.
Here is another chart, this time looking at CAPE vs CAPD. They are basically the same chart (with dividends showing even more overvaluation) and CAPE is 90th percentile and dividends 94th. Neither are good places to hang out the next 3-10 years. Next q, next y? Who knows.
Note that we published a paper on sorting countries by earnings. What about dividend yield? Same outperformance: