I am still wet and cold from the Rockies game last night. . .one win away from the World Series! They have won 20 out of the last 21 games. Another streaky guy, Bill Miller, opines on whether or not he is just lucky.
I haven’t read Greenspan’s new autobiography. Although having gone through an Ayn Rand phase myself, I am a bit jealous that he attended weekly gatherings at her apartment. Most people have seen this interview with Jon Stewart, but if not here is the video:
Greenspan: “The trouble is that we can’t figure that out. I’ve been in the forecasting business for 50 years. … I’m no better than I ever was, and nobody else is. Forecasting 50 years ago was as good or as bad as it is today. And the reason is that human nature hasn’t changed. We can’t improve ourselves.”
Stewart: “You just bummed the [bleep] out of me.”
I used to side on the views of Milton Friedman here (money supply should be on autopilot), and there is an academic paper on the (in)ability of governments to forecast future interest rates. Does anyone have the link?
When you predict the 1987 Crash, you eventually get to name your alma mater’s new stadium after your father. On the eve of the 20-year anniversary, “The Man Who Won as Others Lost“.
What exactly is Tiger 21?
“This fund is so good it’s scary.” Hint: YTD performance > 70%.
I am going to be broke with all the books I have ordered recently. This one looks like a must read for those interested in the hedge fund industry:
Hedge Hunters: Hedge Fund Masters on the Rewards, the Risk, and the Reckoning
There are interviews with such luminaries as Steinhart, Pickens, Ainslie, and Robertson.
It is written by Bloomberg reporter Katherine Burton, and here is an excerpt from the book where she interviews Scoggin Capital manager Craig Effron. Since inception in 1988, he has returned ~18% with only one down year (and using no leverage).