Looks like another great quarter for the hedge fund tracking strategies. My previous observation that the funds exhibit similar downside volatility and much higher upside volatility looks like the right take away from this Q. Historical testing showed a FOF approach outperforms by about 6-12% a year, and out-of-sample results in 2007 (roughly 10% outperformance) and 2008 (roughly 5% YTD) is a good indication that the model is working.
I sat down with Mark Yusko from Morgan Creek the other week, and he commented that the top holding for many of these funds on their 13F is likely not their best idea, but rather was their best idea and has simply appreciated the most. I reserve judgement until I see most of the data from lots of funds, which is why alphaCLONE is going to be such a cool software app (I’m starting to get really excited, the behind the curtains look so far is awesome). Sign up to keep abreast of the launch, targeted for this Summer.
On to the 13fs!
Bespoke takes a look at the hedge fund sector bets here. Taking the top three sectors from each manager below, I find the top sectors are Services 39%, Tech 37%, and Financial at 14%.
Hedge Fund Consensus – Top holdings owned by 15 value hedge funds, ranked by # of funds with the same position. Mastercard was the standout performer, and America Movil (AMX) was the only laggard. Everyone still loves Qualcomm.
AAPL (3)
AMX (4)
AXP (3)
COV (3)
EMC (3)
GOOG (3)
MSFT (3)
QCOM (5)
WMT (3)
The list of double repeats is at the end of the post.
Hedge Fund Best Ideas – Top two holdings from each of 10 value hedge funds listed below. Mastercard (MA) and Southwestern Energy (SWN) were the standout performers, and America Movil (AMX)was the worst.
AAPL
AMT
AMX
AXP
CA
CDNS
CSX
GOOG
HPQ
KO
MHP
MSFT
NWS
ORCL
QCOM
RIMM
ROST
TGT
WFC
WLP
—-
Baupost Group
Klarman doubled down on his top three holdings News Corp (NWS), Wellpoint (WLP), and Exterran (EXH). He sold out of his SLM position. New positions include Theravance (THRX), Sapphire Industrials (FYR). and Borders (BGP).
Top sectors in the portfolio include:
Financials 30%
Services 21%
Energy 22%
Top 10 holdings are:
NWS
WLP
EXH
LINE
UFS
THRX
APL
ELOS
HRZ
FYR
Blue Ridge Capital
Griffin runs a pretty diversified portfolio, and he was added to his top name American Express (AXP). New positions include Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), and Wyeth (WYE).
Top sectors in the portfolio include:
Services 30%
Financials 22%
Technology 25%
Top 10 holdings are:
AXP
GOOG
CVA
AAPL
SCHW
MIL
DISCA
TV
WMT
MLM
Warren Buffett
Top 10 holdings are:
KO
WFC
PG
AXP
BNI
KFT
JNJ
WSC
USB
BUD
Eminence Capital
New position in Cypress Semi (CY), sold out of Comcast (CMCSK).
Top sectors in the portfolio include:
Services 28%
Technology 40%
Conglomerates 10%
Top 10 holdings are:
ROST
AXP
ORCL
PHG
FISV
SAI
MSFT
ZBRA
DGX
CSCO
Greenlight Capital
50% of Einhorn’s portfolio is in his top three holdings, and he was adding to all three – Target, Microsoft, and Ameriprise, and selling some Helix. New positions include Patriot Coal (PCX), Echostar (SATA), and Energy Partners (EPL).
Top sectors in the portfolio include:
Services 27%
Financial 17%
Technology 17%
Top 10 holdings are:
TGT
MSFT
AMP
HLX
MDC
URS
COV
HMA
BAGL
MIM
Lone Pine Capital
New positions in XTO Energy (XTO) and Monsanto (MON), sold out of Coach (COH).
Top sectors in the portfolio include:
Services 16%
Technology 43%
Energy 16%
Top 10 holdings are:
GOOG
QCOM
AMX
AAPL
XTO
SD
FAST
SWN
INFY
V
Maverick Capital
Ainslie was adding to his largest holding Research in Motion (RIMM), and added new positions in Starbucks (SBUX) and Wyeth (WYE).
Top sectors in the portfolio include:
Technology 30%
Services 25%
Healthcare 15%
Top 10 holdings are:
RIMM
AAPL
QCOM
AMD
MRVL
BK
TXT
AZO
GME
AVP
Okumus Capital
Okumus’s top holding is a new position – Cadence design System (CDNS). He added to McGraw Hill (MHP) and initiated a position in CA. He sold out of Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY).
Top sectors in the portfolio include:
Technology 52%
Services 46%%
Top 10 holdings are:
CDNS
MHP
LTD
ODP
ARB
PZZA
MHP
SHOO
CA
QSFT
Private Capital
Top sectors in the portfolio include:
Services 32%
Technology 35%
Financials 22%
Top 10 holdings are:
CA
HPQ
MGM
SYMC
RCL
INTS
RJF
EK
JWA
S
Tiger Global
New positions in Apollo (AINV) and Cree (CREE). Sold out of
Top sectors in the portfolio include:
Services 33%
Technology 28%
Financial 14%
Top 10 holdings are:
CSX
AMT
AMX
MA
GOOG
MELI
BIDU
TDG
SBAC
PCLN
List of double repeats:
BRK
CA
CSCO
CTV
DFS
ETN
INFY
MA
MDC
MHP
ODP
ORCL
PCLN
SAI
SBAC
TGT
TMO
TT
TXT
UTX
WLP
