LinkFest

We are up about 25% from the lows.  In the 1930 bear there were five DJIA rallies of > 20%, including a 48% rally after the first big dump. 

In Japan’s big bear (which saw 80% declines from the 1989 peak) there were even bigger rallies – four rallies of greater than 50%.

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Crayon Physics

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Two points to be made here, both obvious I think.  Trendfollowers (CTAs) don’t correlate to stocks but they do correlate to each other.

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1001 Rules for my unborn son.

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I never really thought about buying groceries or supplies through Amazon, but with Prime (free shipping) why not?  Link to household supplies 70% off or more.

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It pays to understand the mind-set

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More from Jimmy Rogers

and Soros

and Bespoke

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The Quiet Coup

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We just fully subscribed to Global Financial Data, so expect a lot of new research in the coming months.  Is it a little depressing that I get this excited about a financial returns database?  (Don’t answer that question.)

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Speaking of research, if you bought the Ivy book take a look at the Errata section on the book website.  I have fixed all of the errors and the values in the GTAA paper should be correct.

One error was a typo in 2008 – I flipped the bonds return in October from negative -0.9% to positive 0.9%.  While this is a very minor error, it did have the effect of flipping the return for 2008 for the portfolio to a slightly negative -0.59% from a positive 1.5% (because timing the bonds would have missed the huge 9% return in Nov). 

This illustrates the difficulty of timing the lower vol asset classes, and in the upcoming research we will take a look at all classes of bonds – junk, corporates, 30 yrs, etc. . .

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Anytime you hear the "death of something" it is usually a good time to invest.