Long time readers know my feelings about market forecasts. I was going to write an article about recent predictions by Biryini, Shiller, and Prechter but Jeff Miller beat me to it with a great article “Big Names Big Market Calls“.
S&P500 currently around 1270
Biryini S&P500 to 2854 by 2013 (gain of 124% or 31% annualized)
Pretcher stocks (he said Dow down 90%) so S&P500 to 128 by 2017 (loss of 90% or -28% annualized)
Shiller S&P500 to 1430 by 2020 (gain of 12% or 1% annualized)
Interestingly enough, if you use the lowest (5) and highest values (45) for the Shiller P/E Ratio you get to values similar to the forecasts at both ends (300 and 2500). I think the most interesting but unlikely forecast is all three being correct!
