A Roundup of Market Forecasts

Long time readers know my feelings about market forecasts.  I was going to write an article about recent predictions by Biryini, Shiller, and Prechter but Jeff Miller beat me to it with a great article “Big Names Big Market Calls“.

S&P500 currently around 1270

Biryini S&P500 to 2854 by 2013 (gain of 124%  or 31% annualized)

Pretcher stocks (he said Dow down 90%) so S&P500 to 128 by 2017 (loss of 90% or -28% annualized)

Shiller S&P500 to 1430 by 2020 (gain of 12%  or 1% annualized)

Interestingly enough, if you use the lowest (5) and highest values (45) for the Shiller P/E Ratio you get to values similar to the forecasts at both ends (300 and 2500).  I think the most interesting but unlikely forecast is all three being correct!