Meb Faber Research – Stock Market and Investing Blog

I wrote a month ago that the endowments and real money funds would face a high hurdle this past year (ending June 30th), and it looks like at least the initial numbers are pretty good. 60/40:  18.33% Ivy allocation from book:  24.27% Bloomberg:  " Endowments and foundations gained an average of 20 percent in the year ended June 30, their best performance in 14 years,...

This seems to be the question many people are asking in today's markets.  Most commentators and media focus only on equities (even though the bond market is bigger than the stock market). While bonds have had a fantastic run (the long bond is up about 14% YTD), equities are down around 5% (although with current vol that # could...

It is always good to look at CEFs during bear markets and sharp market volatility. Here is a nice website that lets you screen based on discounts and premiums:  CEF Connect.

If you get to Rule #1 you know there are some that I disagree with, but overall some nice advice from Contrarian Investment Strategies by Dreman. Rule 1: Do not use market-timing or technical analysis. These techniques can only cost you money. Rule 2: Respect the difficulty of working with a mass of information. Few of us can use it successfully....

Normal market returns are extreme.  Listening to the media and following the comments on Twitter one would think the world is ending every 1% move in stocks and bonds.  Makets are volatile, and that is "normal". Outliers have a big impact on performance, and below are charts of the Worst/Best days since 1928 in the US stock market.  As you...

We have a few new papers coming out over the next few months, and below are some of the teaser headlines: Learning to Love Investment Bubbles: What if Newton was a Trendfollower? Where the Black Swans Hide S&P 300, S&P 2600 Total Yield:  Building a Better Dividend

Last quotes from Future Babble I promise: “I can forecast confidently that it will vary.  After that, I can gossip with you.  But that’s all it is, because there are too many factors which go in to the dynamics of the pricing of oil.” -Lord John Browne, the legendary former chief executive officer of British Petroleum, worked all his life in...

Remember when everyone hated bonds six months ago? Long term bonds have rallied about 10% since that post on bond drawdowns: When Things Go On Sale, People Run Out of the Store An updated chart of the long bond ETF TLT below....

Another great quote from Future Babble: “The Commanding General is well aware the forecasts are no good.  However, he needs them for planning purposes.” - Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Laurate Economist, recalling the response he and colleagues received during the Second World War when they demonstrated that the military’s long-term weather forecasts were useless.  

This is a great passage from the book Future Babble: Be articulate, enthusiastic, and authoritative.  Be likable.  See things through a single analytical lens and craft an explanatory story that is simple, clear, conclusive, and compelling.  Do not doubt yourself.  Do not acknowledge mistakes.  And never, ever say, "I don't know." People unsure about the future want to hear from confident...