Meb Faber Research – Stock Market and Investing Blog

This is a complete repost from April 2007...some of the difficulties in following a market timing system... In an unrelated note, Hulbert pens a great column on market newsletter “Douglas Fabian’s Successful Investing”. Quote from the column: “(Fabian’s) newsletter was started in the 1970s by his father, Richard Fabian, who based the newsletter on mechanically following the stock market’s 39-week moving average....

on AlphaClone...30 new ones added below.  I'd be curious to hear how people are doing that are following the software, leave a comment if you have the chance.  The Tiger Cubs portfolio on FolioFn is one of their best performers, no surprise there! Are you using AlphaClone, and if so, with what approach and how are you doing? 1. ALKEON...

...when the Dow first crossed 10,000? I was on Spring Break ice climbing in Durango, and then climbing Engineer mountain and sleeping in an ice cave. When we finished, after sleeping for a day, we drank whiskey with the cowboys at a bar where the piano player sang "House of the Rising Sun". Raining here in LA -...

It's Miller Time I don't even know what to say.  Wouldn't a story about AlphaClone be much more interesting?  Like, say, how following Greenlight beats the market by 13% a year?  Active mutual funds are an enormous fail for the investor. My favorite stat: CGMFX 10 yr annualized 19.59% returns.  10 yr annualized INVESTOR returns -13.94%!!! (Note: This is Heebner's fund, not...

Hat tip to Market Folly for the reference.  Robertson on Bloomberg: "I think that if you really look at how to do a good record over the years, it's not to make the huge amounts of money.  It's to avoid big losses.  That's the way to really make money over the years." Sounds like Julian would like my white paper!  ...

"You don't want to be average; it's not worth it, does nothing.  In fact, it's less that the market.  The question is, 'How do you get to be first quartile?'  If you can't, it doesn't matter what the optimizer says about asset allocation." - Dr. Allan Bufferd, CIO of the MIT endowment in Foundation and Endowment Investing. While Dr. Bufferd...

Off to Chicago, drop me a line if you're around... ---- Some more great research from the boys at Blackstar ---- Mark Cuban like the TShirtAds concept. ---- Pretty innovative cash management strategy from Structural Wealth.  PowerPoint here. ---- How cool - outstanding in the field. Anyone been? ---- I disagree with Goldstein on some things, but am bummed he lost this case - I think these rules are...

I'm in Chicago for a speech this Thursday, Oct 1 - Monday Oct 5.  Drop me a line if you want to meetup!

Julian Robertson interview where he mentions liking V, MA, and AAPL (disclosure: we own all three).  If you have been following the Tiger Cubs AlphaClone model, you would be up 35% YTD. (And historically you would have beaten the market by 17% a year.) http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/1274981993/code/cnbcplayershare ---- Great critique of VectorVest.  My favorite: "VectorVest is the only service that...Uses...

A research paper about my paper.  Cool!  I haven't had the chance to read it yet... ---- Draw your own conclusions on endowment performance last year, fiscal year ending June 30th.  Below are facts. Bonds +7% 60/40 -12.7% Texas -13% Penn -15.7% Columbia -16.1% MIT -17% Williams -18% Amherst -20% Brown -23% Yale -24.6% Stanford -25.9% US Stocks -25.95% Cornell -26% Harvard -27.3% Foreign Stocks -31% Buy and Hold -31.1% Real Estate -41% Commodities -61% (Data sources: Global...