All-In with Momentum

This post is similar to the recent post we did on F-Squared.  We sent out a research piece recently to The Idea Farm list from Pictet, a multi-billion $ asset manager out of Europe.  I am slightly embarrassed to admit I had never heard of them until recently when a reader emailed me some of their work.  They have one...

Building a Simple Sector Rotation on Momentum and Trend

Long time readers know that I am a big fan of simple rules based portfolios, heck that’s behind most of everything I do, from the buy and hold and 13F portfolios of The Ivy Portfolio to the trend portfolios of a QTAA, to shareholder yield approaches to income.  Frankly most all of the 2&20 world can be deconstructed for next to nothing....

Where Have all the Mergers Gone?

One argument against a top in equities is the lack of M&A.  Below are a few charts from IMAA:          


Link to press release here.  

The New House of Money

Steve Drobny, author of the great books Inside the House of Money: Top Hedge Fund Traders on Profiting in the Global Markets and The Invisible Hands: Top Hedge Fund Traders on Bubbles, Crashes, and Real Money just put out a new one: The New House of Money.  Check it out, it's free. 1st interview: Kyle Bass 

The US is the Most Expensive Stock Market in the World

Out of 44 developed and emerging markets in the world, the US stock market is the most expensive on a 10 Year PE ratio basis with a value of 25 (CAPE).  If you include frontier markets, the US is the most expensive out of 55 markets with the one exception of Sri Lanka. Now, the US isn't in a bubble,...

Next Tuesday

A preview of what is coming next Tuesday!      

Bitcoin vs. South Seas Stock

This is just for fun, I have no idea if or when the bitcoin train will ever get derailed.  You could compare this to any speculation that has gone parabolic, I just like ones that are over 200 years old. Chart 1 is actual bitcoin and South Sea Stock values plotted with SS peak lined up with current BC data. Chart...

Small Caps, Cheap or Expensive?

It always surprises me when people have not heard of The Leuthold Group.  (Maybe because they are based in MN?!) They put out some great research so check out their site!  Below on small cap valuations :      

Screenshots from Tactical Backtester

Almost done cobbling together this backtester, aiming to send it out later this week.  A few screenshots below from the current model... ---- In addition to the regular benefits of subscribing to The Idea Farm, which include 2-3 research reports each week as well as free copies of my new books, we have another cool new feature coming! I’m going to make a...