What Will Move Margins Next?

"Our best guess?  Gravity"  - Leuthold Group Here is my monthly roundup of good reads and notes from my Twitter feed @MebFaber    

Valuation Distributions Across Time

This is a good post over from the Eudora Fund website looking at the distribution of value factors across time... Quotes from site: For readability’s sake, I’ve bolded the 5th and 95th percentile values, as well as the median, in each of the valuation distributions. Some interesting statistics from the above chart: The most expensive part of the market, i.e., the 95th percentile, is...

CAPE Fear

Lots of people commenting on a recent article from the very good blog Philosophical Economics written by @Jesse_Livermore.  I'm writing a book on the topic of global stock valuation models probably out in January (and having a design contest for the cover here now).   An investor needs to be aware of the benefits, as well as the drawbacks of...

3 Years of Blood…

Investors love chasing returns, always to their detriment.  The best place to be allocating likely is the worst performers over the past 3-5 years.  And if you have a strategy you believe in, the same.  Lots of redwoods crashing  down the last few years due to the below bloodshed, not a lot of performance fees to be had with...

Arnott on Emerging CAPE

Good to see Rob get a life time achievement award this past week in AZ, also good to see RA fundy assets cross $100B. Here he chats with Tom Lydon, and near the end he talks about just how low the CAPE is on their fundamental emerging.  Preview:  it's really low. [youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODdz0C3gvAk&w=560&h=315]  

A Good Problem to Have – Idea Farm

I moved The Idea Farm to a private list because it was getting too big, and many publishers didn't want their research going out to a large audience, or available freely on the internet.  I have enjoyed sending out over 100 pieces of research in the past year, but am faced with a similar problem today as the list...

Sentiment Update

I'm not sure why the Investors Intelligence (which polls advisors) is so much more bullish than AAII (individuals), maybe perhaps since individuals still haven't bought into the market rally?  Curious to hear thoughts here:  

Dogs and Cows of the Dow: Dividends and Buybacks

I thought this would be a fun way to visualize the Dow stocks, and how they distribute their cash through dividends and buybacks.  Most friendly on the left to least friendly on the right. Note that some companies, like Cisco and J&J, seemingly have a good yield but are net issuers of stock...(Note this says nothing about valuation.).... First list...

The Most Important Yield Chart in the World

Patrick O'Shaughnessy has a great piece this month where they touch on a topic that is incredibly important now.  We mentioned this back in August where the premium that dividend yield stocks are trading at relative to the market is near the highest ever.  Historically when you invest in high yield you are getting a value tilt, but now, as...

CAPE Country Returns YTD, the Ball Don’t Lie!

I've been publishing CAPE updates for countries quarterly on The Idea Farm, and below I highlight a blurb from our upcoming year end outlook.  This chart shows the returns to country ETFs and the 10 cheapest and 10 most expensive markets.  Notice why I was so unpopular in Bogota in January when I said they have one of the...