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Time Spent Before Making a Purchase

I made a offhand remark on Twitter awhile back but was curious about how much time people spend researching before purchasing something.  “Amount of time people likely spend researching buying a: car > tv > plane ticket >  crowdfunded startup > stock. My guess it…

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Asset Allocation Tactical Backtester Download

I’m not sure why I didn’t do this before now, but I’m going to try and make a simple asset allocation backtest Excel sheet available to the readers of The Idea Farm.  I’m trying to figure out how to hide and lock the data in…

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What Works Better, Earnings or Dividends?

I wanted to take a look at another long term valuation metric to see how it does relative to our CAPE metric from our paper  Global Value: Building Trading Models with the 10 Year CAPE . So, we ran the same study with dividends as we did…

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Top 10 ETF Launches of the Year

I think this is a really interesting article for a few reasons.  1. The continued acceptance of ETFs by large institutions.  Not just acceptance, but also CREATION.  A number of these ETFs were created by an institution willing to seed the fund at size, and…

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Travel: Mexico City

I’ll be in Mexico City next week, drop me a line if you want to meetup! Also on the schedule in the next two months are Arizona, Colorado, Las Vegas, and a whole bunch of Florida.

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Are Stocks Overvalued?: CAPE vs. Dividends

People seem to have a lot of misgivings when it comes to CAPE.  I have no idea why as almost all valuation indicators usually line up on the same side when a stock or market is over/undervalued. Here is another chart, this time looking at…

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Gameplan for 2014?

We did a paper years ago that combined the Presidential Cycle and the January Effect.  It was also known as our least read paper.  Anyways, if you were to follow history, and I’m not sure that you should, conclusions would be that the investor should…

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What Would You Rather Own?

From this paper: Emerging markets have > 30% world GDP, but only 12% of world market cap. A Shiller CAPE of about 15.  55% of global population.   or The US is about 25% of world GDP, but 45% of world market cap. And a…

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