I like Mark Hulbert and his writing. However he has been doing a few posts on trendfollowing and seems to be missing the mark (here and here). At one point he does a backtest that excludes dividends and interest on cash, which is sort of like buying a car without an engine or tires. I’ve been writing rebuttals to some of his articles as far back as 2007, so instead of rehashing why trendfollowing works, here are the two most recent.
Making the Trend Your Friend (2011)
The Death Cross (2010)
Background reading here:
- A Quantitative Approach To Tactical Asset Allocation