Reversion System Triggered

Most risk based assets got clobbered in May, but the worst was foreign stocks (EAFE and EEM both around -11%). That would trigger our old reversion system that we wrote about way back in 2007 and 2008, and it has performed great since.  Here is a good summary post, and a bit of a rehash below. The challenge, of course, is...

If you have nothing to say….

This blog will never be one of the more prolific or popular blogs for a host of reasons, and often weeks may pass between posts.  Anyways, this Twain quote resonated with me, as did a lot of the quotes below from the very good book Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger by Bevelin. (Also included is that Munger quote in bold that...

S&P to 400?

As a follow up to my posts on global CAPEs, Timely Portfolio had a mention of Russell Napier of CLSA here, here, and a video here.

Secular Lows

If you look at the history of country CAPEs, they tend to bottom out in single digits around 7.  Bull markets can push this number up into the 40s, with the median around 18.  These may be slightly skewed by most of these markets being in existence since 1970.  (Note: All time lows register at 3 (Thailand and Korea)...

Global Shiller CAPEs

I have yet to find a source anywhere that tracks global Shiller CAPEs so I had my analyst Prabhat update this older post with a bunch of CAPEs for markets globally.  This is for the end of April so likely lots of these have gone down from here...We track the top 30 countries or so across a number of...

Trading System Backtesters and Updates

I get a lot of emails asking about good software to use for X.  We do almost everything in Excel with macros, but I have periodically used the below...email in any I am missing and we will udpate this list.  I don’t include any black box websites or timing newsletters. Caveat:  You have to be super careful here when evaluating...

The Idea Farm

We are going to start rolling out some interesting ideas this summer in the content space.  Would like to hear your feedback on a few logo ideas for the new website... ...so would appreciate it (anonymous if you want) if you voted on your top 3 favorites!   Feel free to leave some comments as well.

Sentiment Update

Quite a shift in sentiment from a few months ago from AAII:

Long Way Down

Here is the graphic from the last post of 30 country ETFs we track, and you can see the US is holding up much better than the rest of the world (note that the all-time high will only date back to when the ETF existed, so will understate some like Japan who is down more like 75% from the...

2 Out Of 3 Countries Are In A Bear Market

I took at look at the top 30 country ETFs we track, and thought it interesting that two out of three were in bear market territory (down 20% or more from 52 week highs). The best performer?  The US stock market. Spain, Italy, Russian, and Austrian ETFs are all down 40% or more. Will update after lunch with a chart.