How to Win NFL Pick’em

I posted this article way back in 2010.  It is a simple quant, anti-consensus method to win your NFL (or any sport) pickem league (where you bet against the spread in a closed league).  If you have been following this you would likely have won both weeks thus far in 2013: —- I’ve used a simple betting strategy to win our...

Mom’s Buying Munis

My mother (that I love more than anything on the planet) is the near perfect contrarian signal when it comes to investing.  Rarely do we actually talk investing, but when we do it is usually in the form of "should I sell X?" after X has declined by Y. She has probably way too much US stock exposure for her...

New Contest – $45k & Travel

Another contest, this one for the super model nerds, over $40k in prizes and top finishers also get a free trip to NYC. Model Off 2013

Shareholder Yield Presentation

Giving a talk next week online, feel free to join in and ask some great questions!   Join me, Mebane Faber, for my live presentation:Global Stock Valuation and Shareholder Yield—A Better Approach to Dividend InvestingThursday, September 19 at 10:00 - 11:00 am Eastern.

CAPE Ratio for Stocks and Weekend Reading

Want to know the CAPE for your favorite stock?  Curious about GOOG (52) DELL (9) or JCP (6)? Here you go! http://www.caperatio.com A few books that just arrived as well below.  What are you reading?  The Manual of Ideas: The Proven Framework for Finding the Best Value Investments Treasury's War: The Unleashing of a New Era of Financial Warfare Quantitative Investing: Strategies to exploit stock...

CAPE Values for Frontier Markets

Damodaran's post the other day  (and a reporter inquiry) led us to add 15 new countries to our CAPE tables.  We will send out the new values this week to The Idea Farm list.  There is a new most expensive country in the world! However, as you move down the market cap ladder the countries get less and less investable..below...

Stock Market Selection Strategies

Visualizes the AAII screens, cool! (HT: BD)

The Jay Cutler Bull Market

It is interesting to note that CNBC viewership largely tracks the market.  Up in good times, down in bad times -  with the exception of this past bull where viewership has declined to near all time lows.  Doesn't seem like retail is participating, or perhaps more accurately, even cares. Source: ZH

What Siegel is Missing

Jeremy Siegel talks about CAPE in a recent FT article.  He has a few criticisms, but misses the bigger picture in my opinion. 1.  He talks about write downs and how that biases CAPE.  The problem is, even if you ignored the  bear market, even if the earnings decline of 2008,2009, 2010 never happened, effect on PE10 / CAPE would...

The Disruption Continues

What used to be marketed as alpha is really just simple indexes once you shed some light on it....(Sculpture from Tim Noble and Sue Webster and HT: MS) If I were a high fee mutual fund complex I would sure hope I was near retirement.  The evolution of former alpha into "alternative beta" or "smart beta" or just simply just...