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Best Tweets of February (and Jan too)

Last week I polled my Twitter followers, and as a result we’re moving the “Best Tweets” feature from monthly to weekly.  It may end up as its own tab or even app, not sure quite what to do with it.   Email in if you have any…

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When Low Vol Becomes High Vol

One of the most fertile areas of research is in factor rotation.  Any asset class, investment strategy, or factor, despite working well over time, goes through periods of over and underperformance.  Those periods set the stage for future reversion, and are largely due to fund…

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Ranking Global Stock Markets On Valuation

A question… When an overvalued security continues rising in price, does that mean the valuation indicator is broken? If you listen to many investors, the answer would be “yes.” An oft-repeated phrase I hear goes something like: “ABC valuation indicator has been flashing expensive since…

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What Do The Biggest Investors Expect For Stocks?

I started to fill out this table then quickly got bored.  So, I’ll just include lots of links to PDFs of the source materials.  Returns in the table are REAL returns, after inflation.  GMO is the grumpiest, JPM the rosiest…Vanguard and Bridgewater are also expecting…

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All the Allocation Models in the World

I am currently updating The Idea Farm backtester, which lets you test any buy and hold allocation back to the 1970s, now across over 37 assets.  There is also the ability to test basic relative strength and trendfollowing strategies. I’ve updated it through 2015, and…

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C’mon Bounce

We had one of the lowest bullish readings ever on the AAII Sentiment survey.  That’s not surprising, of course, after the worst start for stocks EVER.     I’ve been quite bearish on US stocks for awhile – the combo of high valuations, and a…

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