Meb Faber Research – Stock Market and Investing Blog

You often see claims in ads about unbelievable returns in the markets.  Even though markets have only returned about 5-10% per annum historically, you see claims of 20,30,sometimes 50% per year.  (Or if , you read ads like one I saw this morning on a popular investing website, penny stocks ready to explode from $0.5 to $6!!!) So, what if...

Fun interview with Consuelo:     [youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EB_xqnNYAAM]

One of the benefits of having written 1,400 articles on a blog is you can go back and revisit them.  (and often cringe!) Below is a fun one we did a few years ago...we are now at the end of Year 1...the next six months are pretty good historically with the 2nd biggest Jan for small caps next to 2015... Politics...

Yardeni does a great chartbook.  Below are two charts from his Sep publication...

I enjoyed hearing one of the top three ETF issuers mention all the ETFs that needed to be launched have been launched.  So, with that theme, I'm having a little contest inspired by Horizons ETFs in Canada. It's simple:  email in your top ETF ideas for new funds you think should be launched.  Feel free to get as creative as...

I was giving a talk the other week in Chicago and one audience member asked me what was my biggest concern in the markets.  I responded that it was high yield stocks in the US.  I am finishing up a longer piece that should be out next week, but below is a simple exercise for those that want a...

I wanted to illustrate a point I was trying to make to a friend about asset allocation.  Most people approach it with the "more is better" mentality, when in reality you can achieve a a nice, simple base case portfolio with only a handful of assets.  However, most people just don't feel diversified with only a few funds for...

I used the word "normal" above on purpose, as there is really nothing normal about stock returns.  They tend to be more extreme than people realize, obeying the distribution of power laws rather than any sort of bell curve world.  (We have a fun paper on the topic, Where the Black Swans Hide and the Ten Best Days Myth). We've had...

This is a good piece on secular bull/bear markets from Ed Easterling  on Barry's blog.     I had never thought of visualizing the CAPE this way, although our chart on Japan last week was a similar metric... I went back and picked the biggest bubble in 17 developed countries.  Three charts are below.   1 - Peak CAPE value vs. length in time before CAPE...

I"m doing a webinar with Zack Miller tomorrow - it's different than most talks I do - this one is focused on the publishing world rather than the investment side (mostly). So if you have any self publishing questions, or perhaps how to work with a traditional publisher, come listen in... Register here.