Meb Faber Research – Stock Market and Investing Blog

A reader asked me to post the equity curves for the timing model, so here they are:1973 - 2008, log chart:1973 - 2008, non-log chart:1973 - 2008, log chart, including leveraged model:1973 - 2008, non-log chart, including leveraged model:1/2006 - 1/2008 out of sample returns:

Testing TradingMarket's Rules ----Time to buy stocks?----The best links of 2008----Top young economists----US Listed Private Equity was down an astonishing 64% in 2008, and International only slightly better at 61%. Are there any LPs that hedge their private equity exposure? I am referring to the end investor ie family offices, endowments, etc. Using a simple trendfollowing...

Results are below for 2008, frictionless (no fees or trading costs are deducted), and monthly and yearly rebalances. The model is out-of-sample since 2006. I will be doing an update to the white paper by the end of the month, so stay tuned!S&P 500: -36.77%TIMING: 1.33%EAFE: -43.06%TIMING: -8.17%10 YEAR: 21.51%TIMING: 21.51%GSCI: -46.49%TIMING: 1.08%REITs: -37.33%TIMING: -9.67%Monthly...

I thought I would summarize a few ideas mentioned on World Beta over the past few months as potential trading ideas based on some simple quant research.  1.  Follow a simple tactical asset allocation model.  With returns near flat the model performed admirably in 2008 - look for an update to the white paper with out-of-sample numbers sometime in late...

Renaissance Technologies is likely the best performing hedge fund of all time.  I love the fact that their hompage looks like it was designed by an intern in 1995.  (An interesting sidenote, I once interviewed at their FOF Meritage.) Rentech is famous for only hiring PhDs in physics and statistics and other incredibly hard subjects - and Simons is one...

I'm down in the tropics for the holidays and I just want to send out my best wishes to all the readers of World Beta - thanks for all your comments and suggestions, and let's look forward to a great 2009! Best, Meb

If you had to name the top hedge fund managers ever, Julian H. Robertson would certainly be on the list. Robertson successfully ran the Tiger Funds for many years, and an entire book is written about Robertson (Julian Robertson: A Tiger in the Land of Bulls and Bears). The Tiger Funds reached a peak of $22 billion in assets...

Warren Buffett is one of the most celebrated investors of all time. Buffett learned his craft from his mentor, Benjamin Graham, author of the legendary tomes Security Analysis and The Intelligent Investor. Graham ran his own investment partnership for years, grounded on the concept of buying stocks that were cheap compared to their intrinsic value. He preached about...

How to play the January Effect with CEFs.----The Unwisdom of Crowds----A third of all hedge funds going to disapear? So you're saying this is a bad time to start a couple funds?----Deflation and more here.----Wolverine trailer here. Time to get long Marvel (MVL)?----Perfume that sprays on blue but fades to clear over time.----Science advice to the new President.----Design...

To celebrate the launch of the my new software company, AlphaClone, I thought I would write a few articles on tracking the stock picks of top investment fund managers. I have a longer chapter in my upcoming book, but thought I would do a couple quick articles since I have mentioned the topic a number of times on...