Some have expressed confusion as to the format of premium, so below is a demonstration. I’m going to do CAPE updates tomorrow then do a 10 part QTAA series for the 2013 paper update next week. Email in any questions or thoughts…
Mebane Faber Research - Free/Premium blog. Premium posts are behind a paywall, and likely to include research that isn’t published mostly focused on quant research systems and actionable ideas. Data series updates like CAPE, etc. Includes premium RSS feed. $395/year. There isn’t a free trial since there was essentially a six year free trial with > 1,200 articles.
Premium posts show a “Lock” at the top of the post as well as a “KEEP READING” at the end of the post. Non-subscribers will be redirected to a login page. Subscribers will never see the lock once they have logged in. Below is an example from a recent post on CAPE and drawdowns.
Below are a few interesting events in the next few months, I starred the ones that I will be attending for sure (including SF next week and NYC the following) if anyone wants to meetup. Although hoping to attend all if possible!
I was watching this Pabrai video below when I saw an interesting slide below that mentioned cannibals (stock buybacks) as well as cloning (following other successful investors). Tracking his portfolio through 13Fs would have beaten the market by over 7% a year since 2004, not bad! Though you would have had to sit through a whopping 77% drawdown…ouch. (Source AlphaClone)
I used to have all of Pabrai’s letters on hedgefundletters but he emailed over and asked to take them down.
His top current holdings include BAC, C, GM, CHK, GS, ZINC. (Via @GSpier)
PS I am unsure what is going on in the photo near the end with Buffett. In Indian culture you touch someone’s feet to take their blessings…
I had not seen this newish offering until they emailed me recently – the Bloodhound System. It is a quant stock screener/backtester in the same style as Portfolio123. It has data back to the late 1980s cobbled together from a number of sources like Thompson, Reuters, and Compustat- best of all it is point in time. Costs range from $500 – $3500, and they have preset screens with all the usual suspects like Buffett, Zweig, and Graham.
I asked them to create a simulation for fun combining dividends, buybacks, and debt paydown to see if it was in the same ballpark as our tests, and it was very similar. Nice outperformance of about 5% per year.
They also have a free trial with limited functionality, and also a blog here. Probably worth checking it out…
Below is a table of CAPE values, inflation values, and an inflation adjustment. We look at each country’s valuation both with and without the adjustment. Which countries are most impacted by their inflation regime?
Nothing like a 99% drawdown (if/when the market reopens) to rattle the nerves of a buy and hold apologist. Remember, just tell the local Cypriot that they need to just hold through this downturn, and return 10% a year for the next 40 years to breakeven. Remember to have a long term perspective, that’s what’s important here! Stocks are the right place to be for the long term, you just have to hold, and if you’re already 60 and retiring, you better hope to live to 110!
Just for fun here is the Cyprus market with a 10 month SMA and then an equity curve below. Any trendfollowers in Cyprus are probably doing just fine (as long as they didn’t put all their cash in the bank!!)
And for some background here is our whitepaper Learning to Love Investment Bubbles. An enterprising investor could probably spend some time with the Cyprus stocks ex-banks and find some interesting gems…
I know the first quarter isn’t over yet but I have some other things on my plate this week. Below are 10 broad ETFs and their return for Q1 (that despite all of this Cyprus hand-wringing was a fantastic quarter for US Stocks).
A few years ago when we were publishing our first book Wiley sent us a few covers, and I hated all of them. I proceeded to hold a design contest on 99Designs, and then sent Wiley a few of the entrants that I thought were much better. Wiley disagreed, so I threw a tantrum and then said “let’s let the people decide” and had a vote on the blog. The result? My cover got 5% of the vote and Wiley’s won and became the current cover (which I now like). I don’t pretend to have any design ability (or style according to my girlfriend).
I recently asked readers of The Idea Farm how they wanted to receive the info, by email or on a blog. A whopping 92% said email (which is stunning to me).
I hope you have enjoyed the Idea Farm emails as much as we have enjoyed sending them. We’ve sent out over 50 emails that have granted access to over $50,000 in subscriptions. However, a lot of our publishers that charge their clients $1,000 to well over $10,000 per year often don’t want their content freely available out on the web. (One has been emailing me all day to take down one of their PDFs they gave us permission to send since it shows up in Google search. You understand how the internet works right?) To continue to send out this exclusive content we are making a few changes:
We are taking down all social media for The Idea Farm, including Twitter, Facebook, and the blog. Again, many of the publications we send out are very exclusive with their content and they don’t want it out on the web for everyone to read.
The list is moving to subscription-only for $195 per year. I will still curate the research, but I want to be able to hire an analyst to help out with sourcing ideas as well as running the operations of the site. I also don’t want to take affiliate revenue or clutter up the site with advertising to ensure all of the emails are unbiased and conflict-free.
Some may think $195 is expensive, but realize you are getting access to over $50,000 in research (if not $100k, I’ll tally up the total cost at end of year 1). That is a 99.9% discount.
We have lots of great newsletters coming out soon, so stay tuned! And remember, if we get enough subs on The Idea Farm I’ll return MFR to free.