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The Perfect Asset Class

I wanted to illustrate a point I was trying to make to a friend about asset allocation.  Most people approach it with the “more is better” mentality, when in reality you can achieve a a nice, simple base case portfolio with only a handful of…

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20% YTD, is that Normal?

I used the word “normal” above on purpose, as there is really nothing normal about stock returns.  They tend to be more extreme than people realize, obeying the distribution of power laws rather than any sort of bell curve world.  (We have a fun paper…

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Is The Big Bear Over?

This is a good piece on secular bull/bear markets from Ed Easterling  on Barry’s blog.     I had never thought of visualizing the CAPE this way, although our chart on Japan last week was a similar metric… I went back and picked the biggest bubble in…

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Webinar Tomorrow (Tuesday)

I”m doing a webinar with Zack Miller tomorrow – it’s different than most talks I do – this one is focused on the publishing world rather than the investment side (mostly). So if you have any self publishing questions, or perhaps how to work with…

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Which PE Ratio is Best?

In honor of the good professor winning the Nobel prize today, I thought I would show a quick chart we have never published.  It is from our global CAPE paper, and simulates our tests, but this time with various CAPE measurement periods of 1-10 years.…

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Asset Allocation Strategies

I’m adding another allocation from some of my favorite writers at the Butler Philbrick shop.  They did a post here with an allocation below.   Results following at the end: (click to enlarge)  

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iTunes Podcast

I know a lot of my readers don’t use Twitter, so every week I’ll post a few tidbits that you may have missed. This week starts with a fun podcast with Stansberry Radio (iTunes here): [View the story ” ” on Storify]    

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The BIGGEST Problem with Buy and Hold

The title could just as easily have been ‘The Problem with Market Cap Weighting’ When overvalued assets grow to be bigger and bigger parts of a market, or become the market, you no longer want to invest in that market.  That, to me, is the…

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