If US Stocks Are Expensive, How Do I Protect Myself?

There is a lot of talk about stocks being expensive, but also a lot of people not really doing anything about it.  Many simply don't know how to tackle the problem, and others don't want to think about it at all.  Below, for some perspective, are historical returns to stocks since 1970 and the 10 worst months for the...

Templeton & Stock Valuations

I often say there isn't a whole lot new in investing.  Charles Dow was using trendfollowing approaches over 100 years ago, and Ben Graham was using valuation metrics for security selection as well.  Robert Shiller created the CAPE ratio to look at stock market level valuations, and this was based on some of Ben's work on smoothing earnings over...

13F Critics, Silenced?

I don't hear nearly as much from the 13F critics anymore.  Maybe they have simply lost interest, or perhaps the real time performance of the 13F strategies have converted them into believers, who knows.  I've been sending out hedge fund profiles each Sunday to The Idea Farm with current holdings and backtests and investors seem to love the updates. Covered...

Stocks are the Most Expensive, Well, Ever

I jabber a lot about valuation metrics here, and I mentioned this one on Twitter the other day.  Its doesn't need much explanation - the median stock in the S&P 500 is the most expensive it has even been (for as long as we have data).  That's never a good sign! If your favorite valuation indicator is not at "the...

What a Great Time To Be An Investor!

There has been a lot of press lately on the roboadvisors, largely due to the fact that Schwab entered the market this week with their Intelligent Portfolio service that charges a 0% management fee (but invests in their own ETFs).  If you haven't been reading my blog since 2006, I have written many times on their development and in general...

CHAPTER 3 – ASSET CLASS BUILDING BLOCKS

This excerpt is from the book Global Asset Allocation now available on Amazon as an eBook.   If you promise to write a review, go here and I’ll send you a free copy. It is also available as a printable PDF on Gumroad. ---- “I think the single most important thing that you can do is diversify your portfolio.” –Paul Tudor Jones,...

CHAPTER 2 – THE BENCHMARK PORTFOLIO: 60/40

This excerpt is from the book Global Asset Allocation now available on Amazon as an eBook.   If you promise to write a review, go here and I’ll send you a free copy. It is also available as a printable PDF on Gumroad. ------ “No strategy is so good that it can’t have a bad year or more.  You’ve got to...

Cash Cows of the Dow

I've been writing for a long time as to why a shareholder yield approach is better than a simple dividend approach.  (Here's an old 2007 post.) Below we take a look at the 30 stocks in the Dow for a simple example. Dividend yields on the group range from 0.7% to 5.4%, with the "Dogs" (top 10) averaging 3.7%.  Tack...

Webinar and NYC Travel

Tune in tomorrow and come ask some questions! Free webinar with my friends at S&P Dow.   I'll be in NYC twice in March to speak at QuantCon on March 14th and the MTA Conference on March 27th.  If you want to schedule a meeting let me know!