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QTAA Update: In Practice 6/10
...hese models for real-world applicability – namely, management fees, taxes, commissions, and slippage. Management fees should be identical for both the buy and hold and timing models, and will vary depending on the instrument used for investing. 0.10% to 0.70% is a fair estimate range for these fees using ETFs and no-load mutual funds (obviously the lower the better). Many all-ETF portfolios can be formed for approximately 0.1% to 0.3%. Commissions...
QTAA Update: Global Tactical 5/10
...he funds. Figure 12 illustrates the percentage of months in which various numbers of asset classes were held. It is evident that the system keeps the investor 60%-100% invested the vast majority of the time (approximately ~80% of the time the portfolio is at least 60% invested). On average, the investor is 70% invested. Figure 12: Percent of the Time Invested, 1973-2012 Figures 13 and 13b below present the results for the buying and holding of the...
QTAA Paper Update: Manage Your Risk 4/10
...1 are constructed by GFD. Data from 1901-1971 uses the Standard and Poor’s Composite Price Index and dividend yields supplied by the Cowles Commission and from S&P. Figure 7 presents the annualized returns for the S&P 500 and the timing method for the past 100+ years. A cursory glance at the results reveals that the timing solution improved compounded returns while reducing risk, all while being invested in the market approximately 70% of the time...
QTAA Paper Update: Go Global 3/10
...less otherwise noted all data series are total return series including dividends and income, and from Global Financial Data: US Large Cap, S&P 500 Foreign Developed, MSCI EAFE US 10-Year Government Bonds Commodities, Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Real Estate Investment Trusts, NAREIT Index While the indexes traveled different routes from start to finish, most of the asset classes finished with similar returns over the time period. The exception wa...
QTAA Paper Update: The Current Challenge 2/10
...proved to be a wonderful place to invest during the past twelve years. The compound return was 7.07% and a nice 4.5% after inflation. The problem with these returns, however, is that they come at the expense of future returns as yields have declined to all time low levels in the US below 2%. Future bond returns are fairly easy to forecast – it is simply the starting yield. Your ten-year nominal return for buying US government bonds will be around...
QTAA Paper Update: Introduction 1/10
...he US stocks and bonds are trading near or at all-time highs including dividends. Most importantly for any investor is that they have a plan and process for investing in any environment, regardless of how improbable or unfathomable that may be. Are you prepared for all of the possible outcomes, such as declines of 50-100% in your asset class or portfolio? Are you prepared for currency devaluations, but also massive rallies in stocks or bonds? Can...
Travel & Macro Pessimism, Micro Optimism (Part III)
...game: The platform uses links instead of phone numbers and PINs, while browser-based controls make it easy to manage file sharing and see who has joined and who is talking. and my favorite: Rent-a-Goat.com – Online directory lists herders around the world who rent out their goats for clearing away unwanted brush and weeds, as an eco-friendly alternative to machinery or chemicals....
Case Study on Self-Publishing an eBook
...forever. A great book can change a person’s life. A mediocre book is just commerce…..Let some of you come through. You’re obviously not writing a memoir here, but this book is still partly about you — the world you see, the way you think, the experiences you have with people. And trust me, readers are interested in who you are. So don’t be afraid to let bits and pieces of your personality and even life details seep into the text. It will breathe...
Shareholder Yield Book is Out!
...up a copy I would love to hear what you think! Shareholder Yield: A Better Approach to Dividend Investing If you don’t have a Kindle you can still read it on your iPad or computer (software download here for CPU.) I am going to upload it to Barnes and Noble (Nook) and Apple this week. ...
Trillion $ Mistake
...rates investing in the largest company in the US….good idea? —- —- PDF Download The Trillion Dollar Mistake PS: In the month since The Idea Farm went private we’ve featured some great research: 5 New Asset Classes with SocGen (upcoming) Macro Updates with Cornerstone (upcoming) Inflation expectations and commodities with Guggenheim Cantor on Kamikaze QE McClellan on copper inventories Fundamental improvements with Janiczek and our GTAA paper updat...
