Meb Faber Research – Stock Market and Investing Blog

After viewing the responses to our last survey, we have decided to update a few of our white papers and expand upon them.  The biggest question I have is, "How do you want to read long form content?".  Since this update will likely be somewhere between 50-300 pages, I would like to poll the readership as to your preferred...

Nice post from my buddy Jake at Econompic Data on timing models in emerging markets...  

I always look forward to reading the great work out of the folks at The Leuthold Group.  Here is a great chart from their monthly Green Book, a must read ($).  

A few new books on the bookshelf: Grand Pursuit - Sylvia Nasar The Inner Voice of Trading- Michael Martin Below is a great quote pulled from The Inner Voice: "We analyze massive volumes of noisy data from the markets, trying to find patterns that we can "bet" on.  I would say we have considerable humility compared with most participants in the financial markets,...

I thought I would post a few charts for perspective from AAII recent updates.  Click to enlarge:   And a nice PPT slide from the good folks at OSAM:

Great new piece from the folks at RA - "King of the Mountain (PDF)".  It takes a look at how PE Ratios respond to real interest rates and inflation. Quick summary:  There is a sweet spot with moderate real yields (2-5%) and moderate inflation (2-3%).  When conditions move outside of these bands (ie, now), PE Ratios tend to be much...

I think there is room for more curation on the academinc/professional research space in investments.  A few sites have been working on it to various degrees, and my current  favorites are CXO and Empirical Research (now Turnkey Analyst).  Some of the other linkfest/aggregation sites like Advisor Perspectives and Abnormal Returns are good too, but I'm talking about a more...

In much the same vein as the $10k NAAIM Wagner Award, AQR is offering a $100k prize for a research paper competition. World Beta readers have claimed a few of these prizes so let's get a winner here too!

Right now I get most of my ideas out through a few channels, namely: Twitter - for (very) short comments and links (follow @MebFaber). Blog - For short comments and links. Cambria Quant Research - For longer (10-50) page research pieces (you can sign up on the blog or Cambria website to get email notices when they get published).  These are archived...

August and September are turning out to be two of the top ten best months for the long bond.  Ever.  Both had double digit returns. In general, there is not a lot of statistical predictability if you look at just the return series.  However, many of these great months came as the US was turning the corner on inflation in...