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50% Returns Coming for Commodities and Emerging Markets?

If history is any guide, we’re standing at the edge of 40%–96% returns over the next two years. This isn’t wishful thinking or wild speculation. I’m not selling anything. Rather, I’m just reporting historical gains from a market set-up that’s repeating itself right now. So…

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Looking Back

Back in early 2014 I penned a Market Outlook.  The main points were: 1.        2013 – A Monster Year for Stocks 2.        …But Valuation Will be a Headwind 3.        Small Cap Stocks and Dividends are Expensive 4.        Bonds will not help a 60/40 get to…

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Things I Find Beautiful, Useful, or Downright Magical

I travel quite a bit, and often will sit down with friends over dinner and chat about companies, ideas, lifestyles, etc. Often I’m struck when people haven’t heard of an app, product, or service that I find downright indispensable. Below is a list of apps, websites,…

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Getting What You Pay For

There are a lot of index funds in drag.  Below are three must reads on the topic. If you are going to stray from market cap weighting, it pays to be concentrated and very different. Otherwise, what’s the point?!  Make sure you read all three,…

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The 5 Mistakes Every Investor Makes

The 5 Mistakes Every Investor Makes is a recent book I read by Peter Mallouk, the #1 Investment Advisor in America.  (I’m not poking fun, that’s just what it says on the cover.)  In general it is an easy-to-read book that offers quite reasonable advice, and you can…

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Minimum Loss Portfolio

There’s all sorts of cool tools to play around with on PortfolioCharts.com. One new addition is the ability to select a group of assets, the required minimum rate of return, and it will spit out the portfolios that had the smallest yearly loss. Best of…

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10 Best Articles from Q1

Below are a few upcoming speeches.  If you are in town and want to schedule a meeting, or just want to say hello, please send me an email. April 9th, New York, QuantCon (This Saturday!) April 25 – 28, Arizona, FPA Retreat  There will also be two…

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How Much Do You Have in Foreign Bonds? Probably Zero.

I’ve given a speech on global stock market valuations about 20 times over the past few years.  Usually, if the crowd is small enough, I’ll pass around a piece of paper and ask people one question: “How much of your global stock portfolio is in…

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