If You Used Valuation, You Would Be Out of Stocks Since 1993

Let's say you are a macro value investor, and let's say you particularly liked using the CAPE ratio.  Well, one argument against CAPE is that is has held an expensive rating on stocks for a looong time.  How long? Since 1992!  Stocks ended 1992 at a value of 19.8 (prior year was 15.7).  If you were a prudent investor you...

A Simple Calculation

I think many still do not appreciate the ins and outs of how companies distribute their cash flows.  Our last post included a must read on dividends and buybacks, and below I thought I would include a simple table to illustrate my main point (that ignoring either dividends OR buybacks is a big mistake). I screened the top 2000 stocks...

Breakdown of Dividend, Buyback, and Shareholder Yield for the S&P 500

Below is a great piece from CSFB / Mauboussin on dividends and buybacks that we went out to the Idea Farm a few weeks ago. It is a must read: Disbursing Cash to Shareholders  

Santa Barbara Talk

Had forgotten to mention this, but I'm talking at an event in Santa Barbara tomorrow (Tuesday) at 2pm...stop by and pick up a free book! PowerShares University SCHEDULE 1:00 PM - 1:15 PM Registration & Lunch   1:15 PM - 3:15 PM Presentations   Program Eligible for 2.0 Hours of CFP and Non -IMCA CE Credits Dividends & Share Buybacks In Portfolio ConstructionNasdaq OMXThe Surprising Alpha from Malkiel's Monkey &...

The WealthFront and Betterment Allocations

Lots of people have been commenting on the rise of the robo-advisors.  In general I think their development is a positive for individual investors.   (Note to investors: You can lookup any RIA online and see their fee structure and assets under management at the SEC website or at BrightScope.  If any numbers below are incorrect please feel free to reach out.)  Here is...

Earning 20% from the Beach, & My Presentation From Wine Country

I was giving a speech in the Bahamas (I know, I know, kind of ridiculous), and the nite before the talk was watching the original Die Hard.  For the 1% that have never seen the movie, there is a scene where the bad guy is talking about stealing $600M in bonds and living out his life on the beach,...

Excel Quant Backtester, & Down on the Farm

Note: Many do not realize a subscription to The Idea Farm includes a tactical Excel backtester with data back to the 1970s...it's pretty cool and we will update with 2013 data soon... Between publishing two books and launching some new funds, unfortunately the last few months I have not had as much time to write on the blog. This summer...

Home Bias, Everywhere

Here is another great screenshot from JP Morgan, where it shows a big bias that even institutional investors have all over the world...  

Skin in the Game – My Portfolio

Next time you sit down with your advisor, ask him or her a simple question:   How do you invest your own money? Don't settle for a simple "well, uh, I have some stocks and bonds, and, umm, some CDs"...ask them specifically what their allocation percentages are, and what funds they use etc.  Many find it very uncomfortable to disclose and many...

Books in the Mail (or Pre-Ordered)

The Hard Thing About Hard Things: Building a Business When There Are No Easy Answers - Horowitz Letters of Note: An Eclectic Collection of Correspondence Deserving of a Wider Audience - Usher The Tragedy of the European Union: Disintegration or Revival? - Soros Succession Planning for Financial Advisors - Grau Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises - Geithner